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Chapter 1: Introduction 67 future. However, if discount rates decline in the long term, then releases of CO2 from storage must be lower in order to achieve the same level of effectiveness. 30–40 years; when refurbishment or re-powering is taken into account, the generating station can be supplying electricity for even longer still. Such lifetimes generate expectations which are reflected in the design of the plant and in the rate of return on the investment. The capture equipment could be built and refurbished on a similar cycle, as could the CO2 transmission system. The operational lifetime of the CO2 storage reservoir will be determined by its capacity and the time frame over which it can retain CO2, which cannot be so easily generalized. However, it is likely that the phase of filling the reservoir will be at least as long as the operational lifetime of a power plant19. In terms of protecting the climate, we shall refer to this as the medium term, in contrast to the short-term nature of measures connected with decisions about operating and maintaining such facilities. Other authors suggest that the climate impact of CO2 released from imperfect storage will vary over time, so they expect carbon prices to depend on the method of accounting for the releases. Haugan and Joos (2004) found that there must be an upper limit to the rate of loss from storage in order to avoid temperatures and CO2 concentrations over the next millennium becoming higher in scenarios with geological CCS than in those without it18. Dooley and Wise (2003) examined two hypothetical release scenarios using a relatively short 100-year simulation. They showed that relatively high rates of release from storage make it impossible to achieve stabilization at levels such as 450 ppmv. They imply that higher emissions trajectories are less sensitive to such releases but, as stabilization is not achieved until later under these circumstances, this result is inconclusive. In contrast, the mitigation of climate change is determined by longer time scales: for example, the lifetime (or adjustment time) of CO2 in the atmosphere is often said to be about 100 years (IPCC, 2001c). Expectations about the mitigation of climate change typically assume that action will be needed during many decades or centuries (see, for example, IPCC, 2000a). This will be referred to as the long term. Even so, these descriptors are inadequate to describe the storage of CO2 as a mitigation measure. As discussed above, it is anticipated that CO2 levels in the atmosphere would rise, peak and decline over a period of several hundred years in virtually all scenarios; this is shown in Figure 1.7. If there is effective action to mitigate climate change, the peak would occur sooner Pacala (2003) examined unintended releases using a simulation over several hundred years, assuming that storage security varies between the different reservoirs. Although this seemed to suggest that quite high release rates could be acceptable, the conclusion depends on extra CO2 being captured and stored, and thereby accumulating in the more secure reservoirs. This would imply that it is important for reservoirs with low rates of release to be available. Such perspectives omit potentially important issues such as the political and economic risk that policies will not be implemented perfectly, as well as the resulting ecological risk due to the possibility of non-zero releases which may preclude the future stabilization of CO2 concentrations (Baer, 2003). Nevertheless, all methods imply that, if CO2 capture and storage is to be acceptable as a mitigation measure, there must be an upper limit to the amount of unintended releases. The discussion above provides a framework for considering the effectiveness of the retention of CO2 in storage and suggests a potential context for considering the important policy question: ‘How long is long enough?’ Further discussion of these issues can be found in Chapters 8 and 9. 1.6.5 Time frame for the technology Discussions of CCS mention various time scales. In this section, we propose some terminology as a basis for the later discussion. Figure 1.7 The response of atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to emissions to the atmosphere. Typical values for ‘short term’, ‘medium term’, ‘long term’ and’ very long term’ are years, decades, centuries, millennia, respectively. In this example, cumulative emissions are limited to a maximum value and concentrations stabilize at 550 ppmv (adapted from Kheshgi, 2003). This figure is indicative and should not be read as prescribing specific values for any of these periods. If the goal were to constrain concentrations in the atmosphere to lower levels, such as 450 ppmv, greater reductions in emission rates would be required. 19 It should be noted that there will not necessarily be a one-to-one correspondence between a CO2-producing plant and storage reservoir. Given a suitable network for the transport of CO2, the captured CO2 from one plant could be stored in different locations during the lifetime of the producing plant. Energy systems, such as power plant and electricity transmission networks, typically have operational lifetimes of 18 These authors calculated the effectiveness of a storage facility measured in terms of the global warming avoided compared with perfect storage. For a store which annually releases 0.001 of the amount stored, effectiveness is around 60% after 1000 years. This rate of release would be equivalent to a fraction retained of 90% over 100 years or 60% over 500 years. It is likely that, in practice, geological and mineral storage would have lower rates of release than this (see chapters 5 and 7) and hence higher effectiveness – for example, a release rate of 0.01% per year would be equivalent to a fraction retained of 99% over 100 years or 95% over 500 years.PDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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