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68 IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (and be at a lower level) than if no action is taken. As suggested above, most of the CO2 must be stored for much longer than the time required to achieve stabilization. We consider this to be the very long term, in other words periods of time lasting centuries or millennia. Precisely how long is a subject of much debate at present and this will be explored in later chapters. 1.6.6 Other effects of introducing CCS into scenarios The successful development and implementation of CCS on a large scale might therefore be interpreted by society as a driver for reinforcing socio-economic and behavioural trends that are increasing total energy use, especially in developed countries and within high-income groups in developing countries21 (IPCC, 2001a). 1.6.6.2 Effect of CCS on technological diversity In view of the economic importance of energy carriers (more than 2 trillion dollars annually, World Energy Assessment, 2004) as well as fossil fuel’s contribution to climate forcing (50 to 60% of the total), the decision to invest economic resources in the development of a technology such as CCS may have far- reaching consequences, including implications for equity and sustainable development (these are discussed in the following section). This emphasizes the importance of considering the wider ramifications of such investment. The fossil fuel energy system and its infrastructure can be thought of as a technology cluster. Such a phenomenon can be recognized as possibly presenting dangers as well as offering benefits for society. It can lead to specialization as innovations improve on dominant technologies, thereby generating further innovations which help to retain market share. On the other hand, innovations in technologies with small market shares are less valuable and so there is less incentive to improve on those technologies; a minor technology can therefore become trapped by high costs and a small market share. This phenomenon leads to path dependence or technology lock-in (Bulter and Hofkes, 2004; Unruh, 2000). Although CCS has not yet been examined specifically in this respect, it may be that reinforcing the position of the fossil fuel energy system may present barriers to increased technological diversity (a key element in evolutionary change; see Nelson and Winter, 1982). The implementation of CCS would contribute to the preservation of much of the energy infrastructure established in the last century and may help restrain the cost of meeting the target for emissions reduction. From another perspective, its use may reduce the potential for application of alternative energy sources (Edmonds et al., 2001). As noted in section 1.3, the mitigation of climate change is a complex issue and it seems likely that any eventual solution will involve a portfolio of methods20. Even so, there is concern in some quarters that the CO2 capture and storage option could capture financial resources and the attention of policymakers that would otherwise be spent on alternative measures, although this issue has not been extensively analyzed in the literature. It could be argued that increasing demand for some alternative energy sources will bring significant additional benefits outside the climate change arena such as rural sector jobs, or a large labour force for maintenance (World Energy Assessment, 2004). It is not possible to forecast the full societal impacts of such technology in its early days, especially as it seems likely that stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 will require the full slate of available technologies (including ones not yet developed). The available information is not adequate for predictions of the differences in job creation potential between different mitigation options. The possibility of obtaining net negative emissions when coupling biomass energy and CCS may provide an opportunity to reduce CO2 concentration in the atmosphere if this option is available at a sufficiently large scale. In view of the uncertainty about the safe concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, a large-scale option providing net negative emissions could be especially useful in the light of the precautionary principle. In view of the paucity of literature on these aspects of CCS, this report cannot provide tools for a full quantitative judgment of options; it merely flags some of the other issues that decision- makers will wish to consider. This is further discussed in Chapter 8. 1.6.6.1 Effect of CCS on energy supply and use All of the SRES scenarios (IPCC, 2000a) show significant consumption of fossil fuels for a long time into the future. One of the consequences of deploying CCS would be a continued use of fossil fuels in the energy mix but the minimization of their effect on the climate system and environment. By enabling countries to access a wider range of energy supplies than would otherwise be the case, energy security will be improved. Such aspects are important when considering climate change policy and sustainable development: as indicated before, decision- makers are likely to balance pure economic effectiveness against other socially relevant issues. 20 The optimum portfolio of mitigation measures is likely to be different in different places and at different times. Given the variety of measures available, it seems likely that several will be used in a complementary fashion as part of the portfolio, and that there will not be a single clear ‘winner’ amongst them. 1.6.6.3 Financing of the projects Compared to a similar plant that releases CO2 to the atmosphere, a facility with capture and storage will cost more to build and to operate and will be less efficient in its use of primary energy. If regulations are adopted which cause the owners of CO2-emitting plant to limit emissions, and they choose to use CCS (or any other measure which increases their costs), they will need to find ways to recover the extra costs or accept a lower rate of return on their investment. In circumstances where emissions trading is allowed, companies may, in some cases, reduce the cost of meeting emission targets by buying or selling 21 For example, housing units in many countries are increasing in size, and the intensity of electrical appliance use is increasing. The use of electrical office equipment in commercial buildings is also rising rapidly.PDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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