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242 IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage the risk of the plume intersecting potential pathways, natural or human, out of the storage site into overlying zones. If CO2 escapes from the primary storage reservoir with no prospect of remedial action to prevent leakage, technologies are available to monitor the consequent environmental impact on groundwater, soils, ecosystems and the atmosphere. 5.6.8 Verification of CO2 injection and storage inventory Local health, safety and environmental hazards arise from three distinct causes: • Direct effects of elevated gas-phase CO2 concentrations in Verification as a topic is often combined with monitoring such as in the Storage, Monitoring and Verification (SMV) project of the Carbon Capture Project (CCP) or the Monitoring, Mitigation and Verification (MMV) subsection of the DOE-NETL Carbon Sequestration Technology Roadmap and Program Plan (NETL, 2004). In view of this frequently-used combination of terms, there is some overlap in usage between the terms ‘verification’ and ‘monitoring’. For this report, ‘verification’ is defined as the set of activities used for assessing the amount of CO2 that is stored underground and for assessing how much, if any, is leaking back into the atmosphere. In this section, assessment of possible local and regional environmental hazards is organized by the kind of hazard (e.g., human health and ecosystem hazards are treated separately) and by the underlying physical mechanism (e.g., seismic hazards). For example, the discussion of hazards to groundwater quality includes effects that arise directly from the effect of dissolved CO2 in groundwater, as well as indirect effects resulting from contamination by displaced brines. No standard protocols have been developed specifically for verification of geological storage. However, experience at the Weyburn and Sleipner projects has demonstrated the utility of various techniques for most if not all aspects of verification (Wilson and Monea, 2005; Sleipner Best Practice Manual, 2004). At the very least, verification will require measurement of the quantity of CO2 stored. Demonstrating that it remains within the storage site, from both a lateral and vertical migration perspective, is likely to require some combination of models and monitoring. Requirements may be site-specific, depending on the regulatory environment, requirements for economic instruments and the degree of risk of leakage. The oversight for verification may be handled by regulators, either directly or by independent third parties contracted by regulators under national law. Risks are proportional to the magnitude of the potential hazards and the probability that these hazards will occur. For hazards that arise from locally elevated CO2 concentrations – in the near-surface atmosphere, soil gas or in aqueous solution – the risks depend on the probability of leakage from the deep storage site to the surface. Thus, most of the hazards described in Section 5.7.4 should be weighted by the probability of release described in Section 5.7.3. Regarding those risks associated with routine operation of the facility and well maintenance, such risks are expected to be comparable to CO2-EOR operations. 5.7 Risk management, risk assessment and remediation What are the risks of storing CO2 in deep geological formations? Can a geological storage site be operated safely? What are the safety concerns and environmental impact if a storage site leaks? Can a CO2 storage site be fixed if something does go wrong? These questions are addressed in this section of the report. 5.7.1 Framework for assessing environmental risks The environmental impacts arising from geological storage fall into two broad categories: local environmental effects and global effects arising from the release of stored CO2 to the atmosphere. Global effects of CO2 storage may be viewed as the uncertainty in the effectiveness of CO2 storage. Estimates of the likelihood of release to the atmosphere are discussed below (Section 5.7.3), while the policy implications of potential release from storage are discussed elsewhere (Chapters 1, 8 and 9). There are two important exceptions to the rule that risk is proportional to the probability of release. First, local impacts will be strongly dependent on the spatial and temporal distribution of fluxes and the resulting CO2 concentrations. Episodic and localized seepage will likely tend to have more significant impacts per unit of CO2 released than will seepage that is continuous and or spatially dispersed. Global impacts arising from release of CO2 to the atmosphere depend only on the average quantity released over time scales of decades to centuries. Second, the hazards arising from displacement, such as the risk of induced seismicity, are roughly independent of the probability of release. the shallow subsurface and near-surface environment; • Effects of dissolved CO2 on groundwater chemistry; • Effects that arise from the displacement of fluids by the injected CO2. Although we have limited experience with injection of CO2 for the explicit purpose of avoiding atmospheric emissions, a wealth of closely related industrial experience and scientific knowledge exists that can serve as a basis for appropriate risk management. In addition to the discussion in this section, relevant industrial experience has been described in Sections 5.1 to 5.6. 5.7.2 Processes and pathways for release of CO2 from geological storage sites Carbon dioxide that exists as a separate phase (supercritical, liquid or gas) may escape from formations used for geological storage through the following pathways (Figure 5.25): • Through the pore system in low-permeability caprocks such as shales, if the capillary entry pressure at which CO2 may enter the caprock is exceeded; • Through openings in the caprock or fractures and faults;PDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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