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292 IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage variety of ways. These different ways of reporting result in very different numerical values (Box 6.3). parcel last contacted the atmosphere because of incomplete equilibration with the atmosphere (Orr, 2004). Taking this partial equilibration into account, the age of North Pacific deep water is estimated to be in the range of 700 to 1000 years. Other basins, such as the North Atlantic, have characteristic overturning times of 300 years or more. This data suggests that, generally, carbon injected in the deep ocean would equilibrate with the atmosphere over a time scale of 300 to 1000 years. 6.3.4 Estimation of fraction retained from model results Ocean models have been used to predict the isolation of injected CO2 from the atmosphere. Many models are calibrated using ocean radiocarbon data, so model-based estimates of retention of injected CO2 are not completely independent of the estimates based more directly on observations (Section 6.3.3). A wide number of studies have used three-dimensional ocean general circulation models to study retention of CO2 injected into the ocean water column (Bacastow and Stegen, 1991; Bacastow et al., 1997; Nakashiki and Ohsumi, 1997; Dewey et al., 1997, 1999; Archer et al., 1998; Xu et al., 1999; Orr, 2004; Hill et al., 2004). These modelling studies generally confirm inferences based on simpler models and considerations of ocean chemistry and radiocarbon decay rates. In ocean general circulation simulations performed by seven modelling groups (Orr, 2004), CO2 was injected for 100 years at each of seven different locations and at three different depths. Model results indicate that deeper injections will be isolated from the atmosphere for longer durations. Figure 6.17 shows the effect of injection depth on retained fraction for the mean of seven ocean sites (Orr, 2004). Ranges of model results indicate some uncertainty in forecasts of isolation of CO2 released to the deep ocean, although for all models the time extent of CO2 isolation is longer for deeper CO2 release, and isolation is nearly complete for 100 years following CO2 release at 3000 m depth (Figure 6.18 and 6.19). However, present-day models disagree as to the degassing time scale for particular locations (Figure 6.19). There seems to be no simple and robust correlation of CO2 retention other than depth of injection (Caldeira et al., 2002), however, there is some indication that the mean fraction retained for stored carbon is greater in the Pacific Ocean than the Atlantic Ocean, but not all models agree on this. Model results indicate that for injection at 1500 m depth, the time scale of the partial CO2 degassing is sensitive to the location of the injection, but at 3000 m, results are relatively insensitive to injection location. Model results have been found to be sensitive to differences in numerical schemes and model parameterizations (Mignone et al., 2004). 6.4 Site selection 6.4.1 Background There are no published papers specifically on site selection for intentional ocean storage of CO2; hence, we can discuss only general factors that might be considered when selecting sites for Over several centuries, CO2 released to the deep ocean would be transported to the ocean surface and interact with the atmosphere. The CO2-enriched water would then exchange CO2 with the atmosphere as it approaches chemical equilibrium. In this chemical equilibrium, most of the injected CO2 remains in the ocean even though it is no longer isolated from the atmosphere (Table 6.1; Figure 6.3). CO2 that has interacted with the atmosphere is considered to be part of the natural carbon cycle, much in the way that CO2 released directly to the atmosphere is considered to be part of the natural carbon cycle. Such CO2 cannot be considered to be isolated from the atmosphere in a way that can be attributable to an ocean storage project. Loss of isolation of injected CO2 does not mean loss of all of the injected CO2 to the atmosphere. In chemical equilibrium with an atmosphere containing 280 ppm CO2, about 85% of any carbon injected would remain the ocean. If atmospheric CO2 partial pressures were to approach 1000 ppm, about 66% of the injected CO2 would remain in the ocean after equilibration with the atmosphere (Table 6.1). Thus, roughly 1/5 to 1/3 of the CO2 injected into the ocean will eventually reside in the atmosphere, with this airborne fraction depending on the long-term atmosphere-ocean CO2 equilibrium (Kheshgi, 1995, 2004b). The airborne fraction is the appropriate measure to quantify the effect of ocean storage on atmospheric composition. 6.3.3 Estimation of fraction retained from ocean observations Observations of radiocarbon, CFCs, and other tracers indicate the degree of isolation of the deep sea from the atmosphere (Prentice et al., 2001). Radiocarbon is absorbed by the oceans from the atmosphere and is transported to the deep-sea, undergoing radioactive decay as it ages. Radiocarbon age (Figure 6.16) is not a perfect indicator of time since a water Figure 6.16 Map of radiocarbon (14C) age at 3500 m (Matsumoto and Key, 2004).PDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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