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CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE

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CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE ( carbon-dioxide-capture-and-storage )

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Chapter 6: Ocean storage 293 Box 6.3 Measures of the fraction of CO2 retained in storage Different measures have been used to describe how effective intentional storage of carbon dioxide in the ocean is to mitigate climate change (Mueller et al., 2004). Here, we illustrate several of these measures using schematic model results reported by Herzog et al. (2003) for injection of CO2 at three different depths (Figure 6.17). Fraction retained (see Chapter 1) is the fraction of the cumulative amount of injected CO2 that is retained in the storage reservoir over a specified period of time, and thereby does not have the opportunity to affect atmospheric CO2 concentration (Mignone et al., 2004). The retained fraction approaches zero (Figure 6.17) over long times, indicating that nearly all injected CO2 will interact with the atmosphere (although a small amount would interact first with carbonate sediments). Airborne Fraction is the fraction of released CO2 that adds to atmospheric CO2 content (Kheshgi and Archer, 2004). For atmospheric release, airborne fraction is initially one and decays to roughly 0.2 (depending on atmospheric CO2 concentration) as the added CO2 is mixed throughout the ocean, and decays further to about 0.08 as CO2 reacts with sediments (Archer et al., 1997). For deep-sea release, airborne fraction is initially zero and then approaches that of atmospheric release. Note that the asymptotic airborne fraction depends on the concentration of CO2 of surface waters (Figure 6.3). Fraction retained is used throughout this report to indicate how long the CO2 is stored. In addition the following measures can be used to compare the effectiveness of ocean carbon storage with other options, for example: • The Net Present value (NPV) approach (Herzog et al., 2003) considers temporary storage to be equivalent to delayed emission of CO2 to the atmosphere. The value of delaying CO2 emissions depends on the future costs of CO2 emission and economic discount rates. There is economic value to temporary storage (i.e., delayed emission) if the cost of CO2 emissions increases at a rate that is less than the discount rate (Herzog et al., 2003). • The Global-Warming Potential (GWP) is a measure defined by the IPCC to compare the climatic effect of different greenhouse- gas emissions. It is computed by accumulating the radiative climate forcing of a greenhouse-gas emission over a specified time horizon. This measure has been applied to compare the radiative forcing from oceanic and atmospheric releases of carbon dioxide (Kheshgi et al., 1994, Ramaswamy et al., 2001). Haugan and Joos (2004) propose a modification to the GWP approach that compares the climate effects of the airborne fraction of a CO2 release to the ocean with those from a release to the atmosphere. Table 6.2 compares these measures for results from a schematic model at three depths. Figure 6.17 Fraction of carbon in the ocean from injection at three different depths and the atmosphere illustrated with results from a schematic model (Herzog et al., 2003). Calculations assume a background 280 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere. table 6.2 Evaluation of measures described in the text illustrated using schematic model results shown in Figure 6.17. For the Net Present Value measure, the percentage represents the discount rate minus the rate of increase in the cost of CO2 emission. (If these are equal, the Net Present Value of temporary carbon storage is zero) Two significant digits shown for illustration exceed the accuracy of model results. measure Atmospheric release injection depth 1000 m 2000 m 3000 m Effective at 20 years 0 0.96 1.00 1.00 Retained at 100 years 0 0.63 0.97 1.00 Fraction at 500 years 0 0.28 0.65 0.85 Airborne at 20 years 0.61 0.03 6×10-6 7×10-10 Fraction at 100 years 0.40 0.19 0.02 9×10-4 at 500 years 0.24 0.20 0.12 0.06 Net Present 5% per year 0 0.95 1.00 1.00 Value (constant 1% per year 0 0.72 0.95 0.99 emissions cost) 0.2% per year 0 0.41 0.72 0.85 Global 20 year horizon 1 0.01 1×10-6 6×10-10 Warming 100 year horizon 1 0.21 0.01 4×10-4 Potential 500 year horizon 1 0.56 0.20 0.06

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