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298 IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage 1 GtCO2 could be detected even if it were dispersed over 107 km3 (i.e., 5000 km x 2000 km x 1 km), if the dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations in the region were mapped out with high- density surveys before the injection began. 6.7 Environmental impacts, risks, and risk management 6.7.1 Introduction to biological impacts and risk Variability in the upper ocean mixed layer would make it difficult to directly monitor small changes in CO2 in waters shallower than the annual maximum mixed-layer depth. Seasonal mixing from the surface can extend as deep as 800 m in some places, but is less than 200 m in most regions of the ocean. Below the seasonal mixed layer, however, periodic ship- based surveys (every 2 to 5 years) could quantify the expansion of the injection plume. Overall, there is limited knowledge of deep-sea population and community structure and of deep-sea ecological interactions (Box 6.4). Thus the sensitivities of deep ocean ecosystems to intentional carbon storage and the effects on possibly unidentified goods and services that they may provide remain largely unknown. We do not have a direct means of measuring the evasion of carbon stored in the ocean to the atmosphere. In most cases of practical interest the flux of stored CO2 from the ocean to atmosphere will be small relative to natural variability and the accuracy of our measurements. Operationally, it would be impossible to differentiate between carbon that has and has not interacted with the atmosphere. The use of prognostic models in evaluating the long-term fate of the injected CO2 is critical for properly attributing the net storage from a particular site. Most ocean storage proposals seek to minimize the volume of water with high CO2 concentrations either by diluting the CO2 in a large volume of water or by isolating the CO2 in a small volume (e.g., in CO2 lakes). Nevertheless, if deployed widely, CO2 injection strategies ultimately will produce large volumes of water with somewhat elevated CO2 concentrations (Figure 6.15). Because large amounts of relatively pure CO2 have never been introduced to the deep ocean in a controlled experiment, conclusions about environmental risk must be based primarily on laboratory and small-scale in-situ experiments and extrapolation from these experiments using conceptual and mathematical models. Natural analogues (Box 6.5) can be relevant, but differ significantly from proposed ocean engineering projects. Given the natural background variability in ocean carbon concentrations, it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to measure CO2 injected very far from the injection source. The attribution of a signal to a particular point source would become increasingly difficult if injection plumes from different locations began to overlap and mix. In some parts of the ocean it would be difficult to assign the rise in CO2 to intentional ocean storage as opposed to CO2 from atmospheric absorption. Compared to the surface, most of the deep sea is stable and varies little in its physiochemical factors over time (Box 6.4). The process of evolutionary selection has probably eliminated individuals apt to endure environmental perturbation. As a result, deep-sea organisms may be more sensitive to environmental disturbance than their shallow water cousins (Shirayama, 1997). 6.6.3 Approaches and technologies for monitoring environmental effects Ocean storage would occur deep in the ocean where there is virtually no light and photosynthesizing organisms are lacking, thus the following discussion primarily addresses CO2 effects on heterotrophic organisms, mostly animals. The diverse fauna that lives in the waters and sediments of the deep ocean can be affected by ocean CO2 storage, leading to change in ecosystem composition and functioning. Thus, the effects of CO2 need to be identified at the level of both the individual (physiological) and the ecosystem. Techniques now being used for field experiments could be used to monitor some near field consequences of direct CO2 injection (Section 6.7). For example, researchers (Barry et al., 2004, 2005; Carman et al., 2004; Thistle et al., 2005) have been developing experimental means for observing the consequences of elevated CO2 on organisms in the deep ocean. However, such experiments and studies typically look for evidence of acute toxicity in a narrow range of species (Sato, 2004; Caulfield et al., 1997; Adams et al., 1997; Tamburri et al., 2000). Sub-lethal effects have been studied by Kurihara et al. (2004). Process studies, surveys of biogeochemical tracers, and ocean bottom studies could be used to evaluate changes in ecosystem structure and dynamics both before and after an injection. As described in Section 6.2, introduction of CO2 into the ocean either directly into sea water or as a lake on the sea floor would result in changes in dissolved CO2 near to and down current from a discharge point. Dissolving CO2 in sea water (Box 6.1; Table 6.3) increases the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2, expressed as a ppm fraction of atmospheric pressure, equivalent to μatm), causes decreased pH (more acidic) and decreased CO32– concentrations (less saturated). This can lead to dissolution of CaCO3 in sediments or in shells of organisms. Bicarbonate (HCO3–) is then produced from carbonate (CO32–). It is less clear how best to monitor the health of broad reaches of the ocean interior (Sections 6.7.3 and 6.7.4). Ongoing long-term surveys of biogeochemical tracers and deep-sea biota could help to detect long-term changes in deep-sea ecology. The spatial extent of the waters with increased CO2 content and decreased pH will depend on the amount of CO2 released and the technology and approach used to introduce that CO2 into the ocean. Table 6.3 shows the amount of sea water needed to dilute each tonne of CO2 to a specified ∆pH reduction. Further dilution would reduce the fraction of ocean at one ∆pHPDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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