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350 IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage Figure 8.3 Annual and cumulative global emissions from energy and industrial sources in the SRES scenarios (GtCO2). Each interval contains alternative scenarios from the six SRES scenario groups that lead to comparable cumulative emissions. The vertical bars on the right-hand side indicate the ranges of cumulative emissions (1990–2100) of the six SRES scenario groups. with high, medium-high, medium-low, and low emissions: • high (≥6600 GtCO2 or ≥1800 GtC); • medium-high (5320–6600 GtCO2 or 1450–1800 GtC); • medium-low (4030–5320 GtCO2 or 1100–1450 GtC); • low (≤4030 GtCO2 or ≤1100 GtC). result in wide variations in future emissions. The scenarios also indicate that the future development of energy systems will play a central role in determining future emissions and suggests that technological developments are at least as important a driving force as demographic change and economic development. These findings have major implications for CCS, indicating that the pace at which these technologies will be deployed in the future – and therefore their long-term potential – is affected not so much by economic or demographic change but rather by the choice of the technology path of the energy system, the major driver of future emissions. For a detailed estimation of the technical potential of CCS by sector for some selected SRES baseline scenarios, see Section 2.3.2. In the next section we shall discuss the economic potential of CCS in climate control scenarios. 8.3.2 CCS economic potential and implications As shown by the SRES scenarios, uncertainties associated with alternative combinations of socio-economic and technological developments may lead to a wide range of possible future emissions. Each of the different baseline emissions scenarios has As illustrated in Figure 8.3, each of the intervals contains multiple scenarios from more than one of the six SRES scenario groups (see the vertical bars on the right side of Figure 8.3, which show the ranges for cumulative emissions of the respective SRES scenario group). Other scenario studies, such as the earlier set of IPCC scenarios developed in 1992 (Pepper et al., 1992) project similar levels of cumulative emissions over the period 1990 to 2100, ranging from 2930 to 7850 GtCO2 (800 to 2,140 GtC). For the same time horizon, the IIASA- WEC scenarios (Nakicenovic et al., 1998) report 2,270–5,870 GtCO2 (620–1,600 GtC), and the Morita and Lee (1998) database – which includes more than 400 emissions scenarios – report cumulative emissions up to 12,280 GtCO2 (3,350 GtC). The SRES scenarios illustrate that similar future emissions can result from very different socio-economic developments, and that similar developments in driving forces can nonethelessPDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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