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Chapter 8: Cost and economic potential 353 Box 8.2 Two illustrative 550 ppmv stabilization scenarios based on IPCC SRES B2 The MESSAGE and MiniCAM scenarios illustrated in Figure 8.4 represent two alternative quantifications of the B2 scenario family of the IPCC SRES. They are used for subsequent CO2 mitigation analysis and explore the main measures that would lead to the stabilization of atmospheric concentrations at 550 ppmv. The scenarios are based on the B2 storyline, a narrative description of how the world will evolve during the twenty-first century, and share harmonized assumptions concerning salient drivers of CO2 emissions, such as economic development, demographic change, and final energy demand. In accordance with the B2 storyline, gross world product is assumed to grow from US$ 20 trillion in 1990 to about US$ 235 trillion in 2100 in both scenarios, corresponding to a long-term average growth rate of 2.2%. Most of this growth takes place in today’s developing countries. The scenarios adopt the UN median 1998 population projection (UN, 1998), which assumes a continuation of historical trends, including recent faster-than-expected fertility declines, towards a completion of the demographic transition within the next century. Global population increases to about 10 billion by 2100. Final energy intensity of the economy declines at about the long-run historical rate of about one per cent per year through 2100. On aggregate, these trends constitute ‘dynamics-as-usual’ developments, corresponding to middle-of-the-road assumptions compared to the scenario uncertainty range from the literature (Morita and Lee, 1999). In addition to the similarities mentioned above, the MiniCAM and MESSAGE scenarios are based on alternative interpretations of the B2 storyline with respect to a number of other important assumptions that affect the potential future deployment of CCS. These assumptions relate to fossil resource availability, long-term potentials for renewable energy, the development of fuel prices, the structure of the energy system and the sectoral breakdown of energy demand, technology costs, and in particular technological change (future prospects for costs and performance improvements for specific technologies and technology clusters). The two scenarios therefore portray alternative but internally consistent developments of the energy technology portfolio, associated CO2 emissions, and the deployment of CCS and other mitigation technologies in response to the stabilization target of 550 ppmv CO2, adopting the same assumptions for economic, population, and aggregated demand growth. Comparing the scenarios’ portfolio of mitigation options (Figure 8.4) illustrates the importance of CCS as part of the mitigation portfolio. For more details, see Dooley et al. (2004b) and Riahi and Roehrl (2000). assessment tools are also used to model changes in market conditions that would alter the relative cost-competitiveness of various energy technologies. For example, the choice of energy technologies would vary as carbon prices rise, as the population grows or as a stable population increases its standard of living. share to provide the energy services and emissions reduction required by society, as this is what would happen in reality. There are major uncertainties associated with the potential and costs of these options, and so the absolute deployment of CCS depends on various scenario-specific assumptions consistent with the underlying storyline and the way they are interpreted in the different models. In the light of this competition and the wide variety of possible emissions futures, the contribution of CCS to total emissions reduction can only be assessed within relatively wide margins. The graphs in Figure 8.4 show how two different integrated assessment models (MiniCAM and MESSAGE) project the development of global primary energy (upper panels), the contribution of major mitigation measures (middle panels), and the marginal carbon permit price in response to a modelled policy that seeks to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at 550 ppmv in accordance with the main greenhouse gas emissions drivers of the IPCC-SRES B2 scenario (see Box 8.2). As can be seen from Figure 8.4, CCS coupled with coal and natural-gas-fired electricity generation are key technologies in the mitigation portfolio in both scenarios and particularly in the later half of the century under this particular stabilization scenario. However, solar/wind, biomass, nuclear power, etc. still meet a sizeable portion of the global demand for electricity. This demonstrates that the world is projected to continue to use a multiplicity of energy technologies to meet its energy demands and that, over space and time, a large portfolio of these technologies will be used at any one time. The uncertainty with respect to the future deployment of CCS and its contribution to total emissions reductions for achieving stabilization of CO2 concentrations between 450 and 750 ppmv is illustrated by the IPCC TAR mitigation scenarios (Morita et al., 2000; 2001). The TAR mitigation scenarios are based upon SRES baseline scenarios and were developed by nine different modelling teams. In total, 76 mitigation scenarios were developed for TAR, and about half of them (36 scenarios from three alternative models: DNE21, MARIA, and MESSAGE) consider CO2 capture and storage explicitly as a mitigation option. An overview of the TAR scenarios is presented in Morita et al. (2000). It includes eleven publications from individual modelling teams about their scenario assumptions and results. When assessing how various technologies will contribute to the goal of addressing climate change, these technologies are modelled in such a way that they all compete for market As illustrated in Figure 8.5, which is based upon the TAR mitigation scenarios, the average share of CCS in total emissions reductions may range from 15% for scenarios aimingPDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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