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352 IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage technical literature that no single mitigation measure will be adequate to achieve a stable concentration of CO2. This means that the CO2 emissions will most likely be reduced from baseline scenarios by a portfolio of technologies in addition to other social, behavioural and structural changes (Edmonds et al., 2003; Riahi and Roehrl, 2000). In addition, the choice of a particular stabilization level from any given baseline significantly affects the technologies needed for achieving the necessary emissions reduction (Edmonds et al., 2000; Roehrl and Riahi, 2000). For example, a wider range of technological measures and their widespread diffusion, as well as more intensive use, are required for stabilizing at 450 ppmv compared with stabilization at higher levels (Nakicenovic and Riahi, 2001). These and other studies (e.g., IPCC, 2001) have identified several classes of robust mitigation measures: reductions in demand and/or efficiency improvements; substitution among fossil fuels; deployment of non-carbon energy sources (i.e., renewables and nuclear); CO2 capture and storage; and afforestation and reforestation. 8.3.3 The share of CCS in total emissions mitigation When used to model energy and carbon markets, the aim of integrated assessment models is to capture the heterogeneity that characterizes energy demand, energy use and the varying states of development of energy technologies that are in use at any given point in time, as well as over time. These integrated Figure 8.4 The set of graphs shows how two different integrated assessment models (MiniCAM and MESSAGE) project the development of global primary energy (upper panels) and the corresponding contribution of major mitigation measures (middle panels). The lower panel depicts the marginal carbon permit price in response to a modelled mitigation regime that seeks to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at 550 ppmv. Both scenarios adopt harmonized assumptions with respect to the main greenhouse gas emissions drivers in accordance with the IPCC- SRES B2 scenario (Source: Dooley et al., 2004b; Riahi and Roehrl, 2000).PDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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