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356 IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage table 8.5 Cumulative CO2 storage (2000 to 2100) in the IPCC TAR mitigation scenarios in GtCO2. CCS contributions for the world and for the four SRES regions are shown for four alternative stabilization targets (450, 550, 650, and 750 ppmv) and six SRES scenario groups. Values refer to averages across scenario results from different modelling teams. All scenarios A1 (average) A1Fi A1B A1t A2 B2 B1 WORLD 450 ppmv 2162 5628 2614 1003 1298 1512 918 550 ppmv 898 3462 740 225 505 324 133 650 ppmv 614 2709 430 99 299 149 0 750ppmv 377 1986 0 0 277 0 0 OECD90* 450 ppmv 551 1060 637 270 256 603 483 550 ppmv 242 800 202 82 174 115 80 650 ppmv 172 654 166 54 103 55 0 750ppmv 100 497 0 0 104 0 0 REF* 450 ppmv 319 536 257 152 512 345 110 550 ppmv 87 233 99 42 55 79 16 650ppmv 55 208 56 0 31 37 0 750ppmv 36 187 0 0 28 0 0 ASiA* 450 ppmv 638 2207 765 292 156 264 146 550 ppmv 296 1262 226 47 153 67 20 650 ppmv 223 1056 162 20 67 33 0 750ppmv 111 609 0 0 57 0 0 ROW* 450 ppmv 652 1825 955 289 366 300 179 550 ppmv 273 1167 214 54 124 63 17 650 ppmv 164 791 45 24 99 25 0 750ppmv 130 693 0 0 89 0 0 * The OECD90 region includes the countries belonging to the OECD in 1990. The REF (‘reforming economies’) region aggregates the countries of the Former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. The ASIA region represents the developing countries on the Asian continent. The ROW region covers the rest of the world, aggregating countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. For more details see SRES, 2000. (Edmonds et al., 2000, 2003; Edmonds and Wise, 1998; Riahi et al., 2003). One of the main reasons for this trend is that the stabilization of CO2 concentrations at relatively low levels (<650 ppmv) generally leads to progressively more constraining mitigation regimes over time, resulting in carbon permit prices that start out quite low and steadily rise over the course of this century. The TAR mitigation scenarios (Morita et al., 2000) based upon the SRES baselines report cumulative CO2 storage due to CCS ranging from zero to 1100 GtCO2 (300 GtC) for the first half of the century, with the majority of the scenarios clustering below 185 GtCO2 (50 GtC). By comparison, the cumulative contributions of CCS range from zero to 4770 GtCO2 (1300 GtC) in the second half of the century, with the majority of the scenarios stating figures below 1470 GtCO2 (400 GtC). The deployment of CCS over time in the TAR mitigation scenarios is illustrated in Figure 8.7. As can be seen, the use studies, as well as those based upon more top-down modelling approaches, also indicate that, once the full cost of the complete CCS system has been accounted for, CCS systems are unlikely to deploy on a large scale in the absence of an explicit policy or regulatory regime that substantially limits greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere. The literature and current industrial experience indicate that, in the absence of measures to limit CO2 emissions, there are only small, niche opportunities for the deployment of CCS technologies. These early opportunities could provide experience with CCS deployment, including the creation of parts of the infrastructure and the knowledge base needed for the future large-scale deployment of CCS systems. Most analyses of least-cost CO2 stabilization scenarios indicate that, while there is significant penetration of CCS systems over the decades to come, the majority of CCS deployment will occur in the second half of this centuryPDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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