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Chapter 8: Cost and economic potential 359 electricity in a world of low carbon prices, this system could produce competitively priced electricity in a world with carbon prices in excess of 54.5 US$/tCO2 (200 US$/tC). Similarly, Makihira et al. (2003) estimate that CO2 capture during hydrogen production from biomass could become competitive at carbon prices above 54.5 to 109 US$/tCO2 (200 to 400 US$/tC). 8.4 Economic impacts of different storage times number of important criteria to be considered. Baer points out that at least three risk categories should to be taken into account as well: • ecological risk: the possibility that ‘optimal’ leakage may As discussed in the relevant chapters, geological and ocean storage might not provide permanent storage for all of the CO2 injected. The question arises of how the possibility of leakage from reservoirs can be taken into account in the evaluation of different storage options and in the comparison of CO2 storage with mitigation options in which CO2 emissions are avoided. cause carbon prices to greatly exceed current expectations, with consequences for the maintenance of liability and distribution of costs; and Chapters 5 and 6 discuss the expected fractions of CO2 retained in storage for geological and ocean reservoirs respectively. For example, Box 6.7 suggests four types of measures for ocean storage: storage efficiency, airborne fraction, net present value, and global warming potential. Chapter 9 discusses accounting issues relating to the possible impermanence of stored CO2. Chapter 9 also contains a review of the broader literature on the value of delayed emissions, primarily focusing on sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere. In this section, we focus specifically on the economic impacts of differing storage times in geological and ocean reservoirs. As these points have not been extensively discussed in the literature so far, the further development of the scientific debate on these issues must be followed closely. Herzog et al. (2003) suggest that CO2 storage and leakage can be looked upon as two separate, discrete events. They represent the value of temporary storage as a familiar economic problem, with explicitly stated assumptions about the discount rate and carbon prices. If someone stores a tonne of CO2 today, they will be credited with today’s carbon price. Any future leakage will have to be compensated by paying the carbon price in effect at that time. Whether non-permanent storage options will be economically attractive depends on assumptions about the leakage rate, discount rate and relative carbon permit prices. In practice, this may turn out to be a difficult issue since the commercial entity that undertakes the storage may no longer exist when leakage rates have been clarified (as Baer (2003) points out), and hence governments or society at large might need to cover the leakage risk of many storage sites rather than the entity that undertakes the storage. Cost developments for CCS technologies are now estimated based on literature, expert views and a few recent CCS deployments. Costs of large-scale integrated CCS applications are still uncertain and their variability depends among other things on many site-specific conditions. Especially in the case of large-scale CCS biomass based applications, there is a lack of experience and therefore little information in the literature about the costs of these systems. Ha-Duong and Keith (2003) explore the trade-offs between discounting, leakage, the cost of CO2 storage and the energy penalty. They use both an analytical approach and an integrated assessment numerical model in their assessment. In the latter case, with CCS modelled as a backstop technology, they find that, for an optimal mix of CO2 abatement and CCS technologies, ‘an (annual) leakage rate of 0.1% is nearly the same as perfect storage while a leakage rate of 0.5% renders storage unattractive’. There is little empirical evidence about possible cost decreases related to ‘learning by doing’ for integrated CCS systems since the demonstration and commercial deployment of these systems has only recently begun. Furthermore, the impact of targeted research, development and deployment (RD&D) of CCS investments on the level and rate of CCS deployment is poorly understood at this time. This lack of knowledge about how technologies will deploy in the future and the impact of RD&D on the technology’s deployment is a generic issue and is not specific to CCS deployment. Some fundamental points about the limitations of the economic valuation approaches presented in the literature have been raised by Baer (2003). He argues that financial efficiency, which is at the heart of the economic approaches to the valuation of, and decisions about, non-permanent storage is only one of a In addition to current and future CCS technological costs, there are other possible issues that are not well known at this point and that would affect the future deployment of CCS systems: for example, costs related to the monitoring and regulatory framework, possible environmental damage costs, costs associated with liability and possible public-acceptance issues. preclude future climate stabilization; • financial risk: the possibility that future conditions will • political risk: the possibility that institutions with an interest in CO2 storage may manipulate the regulatory environment in their favour. In summary, within this purely economic framework, the few studies that have looked at this topic indicate that some CO2 leakage can be accommodated while still making progress towards the goal of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2. However, due to the uncertainties of the assumptions, the impact of different leakage rates and therefore the impact of different storage times are hard to quantify. 8.5 Gaps in knowledge There are at present no known, full assessments of life-cycle costs for deployed CCS systems, and in particular the economic impact of the capture, transport and storage of non-pure CO2 streams. The development of bottom-up CCS deployment costPDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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