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specific requirements, they may not be accepted for use, even when they exceed performance levels of traditional materials. Successful entrants to the market, such as Carbon Cure, have focused on making incremental changes to traditional concrete formulations to minimize the acceptance challenges. The use of carbonate as aggregate does not face the same hurdles to market entry, but its cost is a significant barrier. Current gravel aggregate costs are typically near $50/ton depending on location, while technology developers say low-carbon aggregate might sell for $70 to $100/ton18. Thus, it is unlikely that CO2-based aggregate could be widely competitive purely on price, and instead would require some form of policy support. FUELS/CHEMICALS/PLASTICS Fuels, chemicals and plastics represent a significant opportunity for utilization technologies. Their potential markets are diverse and varied, but they are considered together here because their carbon utilization production processes tend to have some commonalities. The Global CO2 Initiative Roadmap estimates the total market size potential for the three product categories to range from $1 billion to more than $250 billion per year. That corresponds to an emissions reduction potential of 100,000 to 2.1 billion metric tons per year (Table 2 and Appendix A). Again, while these estimates may represent high-end market potentials, a key takeaway is that fuels may have a much larger market and a much larger emis- sion reduction potential than chemicals and polymers. Industrial emissions containing CO and CO2 already are being biologically converted to low-carbon fuels at commercial scale today, creating fuels with over 70-per- cent greenhouse gas reductions compared to their fossil counterparts. As noted in the section describing construction materials, CO2 is a very low-energy molecule. And while formation of carbonates for construction materials does not require input of large amounts of energy, the use of CO2 for fuels, chemicals, or polymers does require significant energy inputs to convert CO2 into products. An exception to this occurs in cases where CO is present in industrial waste gases. At a basic level, conversion of CO2 to fuels and chemicals entails adding hydrogen (either in molecular form or from other reaction partners) to the carbon in CO2. The two primary pathways for doing this are direct hydrogenation of CO2, and indirect production (Figure 6), which involves conversion of CO2 to carbon monoxide (CO) followed by synthesis of specific products. TABLE 2: Market Size Potential 1 – 5 0.1 – 0.2 0.1 – 0.6 10 – 250 1 – 12 2 – 25 10 – 30 0.1 – 1 0.02 – 0.05 700 – 2,100 5 – 50 0.1 – 2 Product Fuels Current Potential Revenue ($ billion) 2030 Potential Revenue ($ billion) Current Emissions Reduction Potential (million tons) 2030 Emissions Reduction Potential (million tons) Methanol Polymers Note: Methanol is used as a representative for commodity chemicals. Source: Global CO2 Initiative, A Roadmap for the Global Implementation of Carbon Utilization Technologies https://assets.ctfassets.net/xg0gv1arhdr3/5VPLtRFY3Y AIasum6oYkaU/48b0f48e32d6f468d71cd80dbd451a3a/CBPI_Roadmap_Executive_Summary_Nov_2016_web.pdf CARBON UTILIZATION—A VITAL AND EFFECTIVE PATHWAY FOR DECARBONIZATION 11PDF Image | Carbon Utilization
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