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Carbon Productivity and long-term value The prevailing narrative today is that halting global warming will come at an enormous cost to the global economy. Estimates of these costs vary widely, but the assumption that costs will outweigh savings and revenues is widespread — and misleading. In fact, reversing global warming could provide an economic prize of considerable scale. Many models of the long-term costs of climate action underestimate both the costs of inaction and the potential for climate solutions to deliver significant cost reductions and new revenue generation opportunities.35 To get a sense of the scale of economic opportunity linked to reversing global warming, consider the following data points (further examples in the next section): • Project Drawdown’s analysis of 80 solutions that would together reduce atmospheric CO2 by more than 1000 gigatons estimates that the lifetime savings of those solutions (spread over the course of 30 years) would outweigh costs by almost $45 trillion — equivalent to a rate of return of roughly 150%.36 • The Global CO2 Initiative estimates that the market for products that sequester carbon will be in the range of $800 billion to $1.1 trillion a year by 2030, whilst removing the equivalent of 10% of annual global CO2 emissions from the atmosphere.37 A price on carbon in line with the recommendations of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices38 (at least $40-80/tCO2 by 2020 and $50-100/tCO2 by 2030) would make these economic opportunities even more attractive. But the scale of the market opportunity is compelling even in the absence of effective action from global policy-makers. 35 Additional examples include Dimitri Zenghelis, ‘Decarbonisation: Innovation and the Economics of Climate Change’ in Jacobs and Mazzucato (eds), Rethinking Capitalism: Economics and Policy for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth (2016). 36 http://www.drawdown.org/solutions-summary-by-rank 37 A Roadmap for the Global Implementation of Carbon Utilization Technologies, https://bit.ly/2KglZho 38 Report of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices, https://bit.ly/2qwj8YJ 14PDF Image | Our Carbon Future White Paper
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