Philanthropy Final Report

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Philanthropy Final Report ( philanthropy-final-report )

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CARBON REMOVAL 101 17 THE CASE FOR CARBON REMOVAL PILLAR 1: MAKING THE 2°C CLIMATE MATH ADD UP CO emissions that, if exceeded, 2 Making the 2°C Climate Math Add Up Meeting our long-term climate goals likely hinges on our ability corresponds to a given tempera- ture increase. The carbon budget remaining for limiting tempera- ture increases to below 2°C Building Benefits Bipartisan Beyond is roughly equivalent to 1,000 to develop and deploy scalable billion tons of CO -equivalent 2 Political Climate Support (CO -eq).5 At the present rate of 2 carbon removal solutions. To curtail climate change, a rap- id economic transition away from fossil fuel consumption and emission-generating land management practices is neces- sary. While it is technologically possible to reduce emissions quickly enough to prevent temperatures from rising above the 2°C limit considered by the international community as the maximum acceptable threshold for catastrophic climate change,4 marshaling the political sup- port required to curtail climate change through CO2 emission abatement alone looks increas- ingly difficult. This subsection explains why carbon removal solutions will likely prove critical for stabilizing and reducing at- mospheric CO2 concentrations. Background: The 2°C Math and Carbon Budgets The idea of a “carbon budget” is central to the math of cur- tailing climate change. A carbon budget is a fixed quantity of annual CO2 emissions (around 40 billion tons of CO2-eq per year),6 the carbon budget corre- sponding to 2°C will be exhaust- ed in less than two decades.* *196 countries have now committed to “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels” as stated in Article 2 of the Paris Agreement. In this agree- ment, the world clearly committed to 2°C as an upper limit rather than a goal, showing that many in the scientific community see 2°C as too high of a limit to protect the most vulnerable populations against climate change. Carbon budgets associated with 1.5°C of warming will be exhausted in less than a decade without significant and swift emissions reductions.8 Further, there is significant uncertainty as to whether this 1,000 billion tons CO -eq carbon 2 budget will actually limit global WHAT IS CO2 EQUIVALENT? CO2 equivalence is used to equate the effect of various greenhouse gases (like meth- ane and di-nitrous oxide) on the climate into a single metric. CO2 equivalence describes the amount of carbon dioxide that would have the same global warm- ing effect as an amount of another gas over a certain period of time.3 temperature increases to below 2°C. Scientists estimate that this 1,000 billion ton CO2-eq budget corresponds to a 66% probabili- ty that temperature increases will stay below 2°C by the end of the century (as shown in Figure 3). To have a higher confidence that temperatures will stay below 2°C, an even smaller carbon budget must be maintained, which the IPCC notes “only a limited number of individual model studies have explored.”7 The climate math is clear: rapid emissions reductions are needed to curtail climate change

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