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CARBON REMOVAL 101 18 Figure 3. The Carbon Budget Math9 Carbon budget (billion t CO2-eq) Atmospheric GHG concentration (parts per million in 2100) IPCC Scenario Name Likelihood of staying below total warming by 2100 1.5°C 2.0°C 3.0°C 4.0°C > 50% > 66% > 66% > 66% < 33% < 50% > 66% > 66% < 33% < 33% > 50% > 66% << 33% < 33% < 50% > 66% << 33% < 33% < 33% < 50% 630-1180 1870-2400 2570-3340 3620-4990 5350-7010 The window low 2°C with of CO2-eq. 430-480 580-650 650-720 720-1000 >1000 RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5 Pictured: Certain grazing techniques can sequester and store carbon in soils. Safeguard for Carbon Budget Overshoot In the case that emissions bud- gets correlated with climate goals are exceeded, only carbon removal solutions can return the atmosphere to safe levels. Scientists estimate that it “will take a few hundred thousand years” for the complete removal of human-emitted CO2 from the atmo- sphere by natural processes alone.10 That is to say, if we reach dangerous atmospheric CO2 concentrations, it will take millennia for the planet to restore the atmosphere to safe levels unless carbon removal solutions are also deployed. Current CO2 emission reduction tar- gets set by the international commu- nity create considerable risk that CO2 emissions will decrease too slowly to stay within the carbon budget associ- ated with 2°C of warming. A report by UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretar- iat noted that, “considering the aggre- gate effect of the INDCs [Intended Nationally Determined Contributions — i.e. national climate action plans], global cumulative CO2 emissions are expected to equal 54 (52–56) per cent by 2025 and 75 (72–77) per cent by 2030 of that 1,000 Gt CO2” carbon budget.11 In other words, planned climate action alone will exhaust the vast majority of the carbon budget associated with 2°C of warming over the next 15 years (Figure 4). While it is entirely possible that the world will take greater collective action to curtail CO2 emissions than current commitments suggest, a number of scenarios would make it necessary to deploy carbon removal solutions alongside emission abate- ment solutions to prevent dangerous climate change (Figure 5). Even w/ international climate commitments, we are on pace to exhaust emissions budgets in a few decades for preventing 2°C of warming is rapidly dwindling. In order to try to limit warming to be- greater than a 66% probability, the remaining carbon budget is roughly 1,000 billion tonsPDF Image | Philanthropy Final Report
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