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CARBON REMOVAL 101 21 Figure 6. Pathways to 2°C Require Emissions Abatement & Carbon Removal 100 50 0 -20 BAU 2000 2025 2050 Path to 2°C 2075 2100 A broad portfolio of mitigation solutions is required to limit the impacts of climate change: emission abatement techniques and carbon removal solutions. Adapted from Climate Institute Report Below Zero: Carbon Removal and the Climate Challenge.16 In total, the average 2°C scenario in IPCC mod- eling includes over 160 billion tons of cumulative CO2 removal by 2100 — meaning that even in scenarios involving aggressive CO2 abatement, 2°C carbon budgets are exceeded by about 15%.17 Critically, this paper also shows that carbon re- moval is prevalent in “many scenarios that allow CO2 concentrations to grow between 480 and 720 ppm CO2-eq by 2100 [i.e. scenarios that involve greater than 2°C warming] ... with 235/653 (36%) delivering net negative emissions globally.” 18 That is to say, even in scenarios where warming reaches 3°C+, carbon removal is assumed to play a valuable role in limiting further warming. Climate modelers also assume that carbon removal will play a large role in near-term climate action. Representative 2°C scenarios used in IPCC model- ing assume annual deployments of carbon-remov- ing energy systems will grow from zero today to about 25 GW by 2040 — an amount equivalent to building 50 average-sized coal plants per year.19 The bottom line is that the scientific community is clear: If we do not swiftly develop and deploy carbon removal systems alongside other CO2 abatement approaches, the math to limit average temperatures to 2°C will quickly fail to add up. Traditional Mitigation Techniques Carbon Removal Billion Tons Carbon DioxidePDF Image | Philanthropy Final Report
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