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2.1.2.1 Lowest Natural Gas Prices in a Decade Natural gas wellhead prices are currently at their lowest in more than a decade, averaging below $2/MMBtu in April and May 2012 (Figure 3).15 Prices climbed throughout the 2000s to a monthly average peak of $10.52/MMBtua in July 200816 and a yearly average peak of $7.78/MMbtub for 2008.17 From there, prices fell sharply to their current lows as shale gas production began to oversupply markets. A warmer-than-average 2011–2012 winter also drove prices down by decreasing heating demand.18 This decrease was partially offset by increased demand from the power sector but still resulted in the lowest overall winter natural gas demand in five years.19 Correspondingly, natural gas storage levels in underground facilities have been substantially higher so far in 2012 compared to the five-year range over the same months.20 Residential and commercial natural gas prices have also dropped, albeit to a lesser extent, from their 2008 peaks.21 Current natural gas prices of $2–$4/MMBtu are challenging for shale gas producers, who generally require closer to a $5–$8/MMBtu range to maintain business operations,22 particularly in dry gas plays. Many have been operating at a loss for some time in hopes that prices will soon rise again.23 In the meantime, drilling has shifted over to liquids-rich fields in search of more profitable oil and natural gas liquids (NGL).24 Energy markets continue to equilibrate in response to changing market dynamics of gas, oil, and NGL supplies and prices. How these dynamics will settle in the long term and around what prices is uncertain, though EIA’s latest forecast anticipates wellhead prices to be in the range of $4.00–$5.50/MMBtu for 2020–2030.25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Residential Commercial Wellhead 2010 2012 Figure 3. U.S. monthly natural gas prices, January 1990–July 201226 2.1.2.2 Widening Oil-to-Gas Price Spreads U.S. spot prices for crude oil and natural gas, historically strongly correlated, have become increasingly decoupled as natural gas prices remain dampened by domestic oversupply and oil prices continue to rise, mostly in line with global markets. This growing price spread has led to increased interest in gas-for-oil substitution opportunities, particularly in the transportation sector. Natural gas at $4/MMBtu roughly translates to an energy-equivalent price of $23/barrel a Converted from $10.79/thousand cubic feet (Mcf) using 2010 average heat content of natural gas in the United States of 1 Mcf = 1.025 MMBtu. (EIA. “What are Mcf, Btu, and Therms? How Do I Convert Prices in Mcf to Btus and Therms?” Accessed August 29, 2012: http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=45&t=7.) b Converted from $7.97/Mcf. 7 $/MMBtuPDF Image | Opportunities Synergy Natural Gas and Renewable Energy
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