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installed capacity but only 24% of total generation. Meanwhile, coal represented 30% of capacity and 45% of generation.32 Because of this spare capacity, the electric power sector has been able to capitalize on the current abundance of natural gas supply, and low prices, with little need for additional infrastructure or system investments.33 The switch has been exceptionally dramatic within the past six months, with coal and natural gas plants each supplying 32% of total monthly power generation in April 2012.34 Further dispatch of natural gas will occur up to the constraints of current natural gas pipeline and electricity transmission networks. Beyond that, new infrastructure and market structures, particularly for natural gas supply, will be needed for greater deployment of natural gas generation (see Part III).35 Forthcoming expected environmental regulations from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on power plant emissions and scheduled age-based retirements of coal plants have also driven the coal-to-gas switch;36 however, shale gas production has significantly advanced the timeline and reduced the cost of this transition. 2.1.2.5 Decreasing Net Imports of Natural Gas U.S. net imports of natural gas have fallen to their lowest level in decades as imports declined exports go primarily to Canada and Mexico (roughly two-thirds and one-third, respectively). and exports rose due to the growing domestic supply. The large majority of U.S. natural gas imports come by pipeline from Canada (more than 80% for the past two decades),37 while 38 LNG imports experienced strong growth in the early 2000s but have since subsided to around 10% of imports.39 LNG exports have stayed virtually the same since the 1970s, representing 5% 40 f 2.1.2.6 Evolving Supply Estimates Estimates of total available gas resources in the United States continue to change—mostly increasing in recent years but with some instances where resourceg estimates were lowered as a result of uncertainties surrounding unconventional gas resources. Coupled with a future gas consumption trajectory that is highly reliant on interdependent sectoral possibilities, approximating the number of years of gas supply that the United States possesses is difficult (see text box in Section 2.1.3). While a review of historical resource estimates shows a general trend of increasing resources41 due to technological improvements, among other reasons, the lack of consensus around unconventional gas resources and future consumption adds a significant factor of uncertainty to gas-related planning and decision making, particularly for long-lived infrastructure. Credible, objective analysis of potential scenarios of supply and demand profiles would help inform ongoing dialogues that grapple with the question of how many years of natural gas supply exist. f EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2012 predicts that the United States will become a net exporter around 2022. g EIA adjusted their estimate of technically recoverable resources from the Marcellus shale play from 827 tcf in their Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2011 publication to 482 tcf in the AEO 2012, a 40% decrease, largely as a result of new well productivity data and updated U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assessments. of exports today; however, as mentioned previously, there is burgeoning interest in ramping up LNG exports, particularly to Europe and Asia. LNG exports are likely to contribute a growing share to U.S. natural gas exports. 9PDF Image | Opportunities Synergy Natural Gas and Renewable Energy
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