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• A regulator should be established. We recommend establishing a regulator responsible for carrying out the regulatory functions described above. For example, the regulator would be responsible for approving VINLEC’s tariffs based on the revised methodology established in the ESA. The regulator could also be responsible for monitoring the geothermal resource, although environmental regulation is not always within the jurisdiction of the regulator. Establishing a separate regulator responsible for these functions is one way to centralize these responsibilities. If the regulator has sufficient autonomy from other government agencies and has the resources to carry out its work, centralizing these functions will ensure that these functions are executed capably. Drafting, reviewing, and approving the laws and regulations that would address these changes takes time to implement. The first draft of the Geothermal Bill was prepared in 2012 and by November 2015 had yet to be approved by Parliament (see Section 11.1.2). Another way to address some of these changes is to establish regulation through contracts. For example, to ensure that tariffs for end customers reflect the (lower) costs of producing electricity through geothermal generation, the PPA that the SPV signs with VINLEC could establish the formula used to determine the tariffs VINLEC charges customers. Similarly, the agreements between the government and the private partners could include obligations that ensure the protection and sustainable development of the geothermal resource. For example, the agreement can mandate that an independent expert carry out periodic evaluations to monitor the environmental impact of the power plant. Since regulatory functions in Saint Vincent are spread across various government agencies, if a regulator is not established a committee could be formed to monitor the SPV’s compliance with contractual obligations. Any dispute arising from failure to adhere to contract obligations could be handled by a regular court, an administrative court, or a special expert panel as applicable. Establishing regulation through contracts would only serve as a short-term solution to prevent delays in project implementation. There are some regulatory functions that cannot be covered through regulatory contracts and for which regulations and laws will need to be established. For example, the government will still need to develop the process through which licenses to establish a geothermal plant are obtained. 95 Economic and Financial Analysis of the Geothermal Project In this section, we assess whether the geothermal project in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is economically and financially viable. We first perform a cost-benefit analysis to determine whether the geothermal project generates net economic benefits to the country. We then use the discounted cash flow method to evaluate whether the geothermal project is financially viable to investors. We conclude that the geothermal project is economically and financially viable. Therefore, we recommend the government and investors proceed with implementing it. We present our analysis and results as follows: • Cost-benefit analysis (Section 11.5.1) • Financial analysis (Section 11.5.2) 11.5.1 Cost-benefit analysis We perform a cost-benefit analysis to determine whether the geothermal project is economically viable. We conclude that Saint Vincent and the Grenadines’ geothermal project is economically viable and increases social welfare. The present value of the project’s net economic benefits is positive and equal to US$19 million (see Figure 11.6). Therefore, the government and donors should proceed with developing the project. 11.5PDF Image | Unlocking Geothermal Power Eastern Caribbean Powerhouse
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