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120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 (20.0) (40.0) (60.0) (80.0) (100.0) 99.1 FIGURE 11.6 Present Value of Net Economic Benefits of the Saint Vincent and the Grenadines’ Geothermal Project PV benefits 19.0 PV of net benefits To determine the economic viability of the geothermal project, we estimate its net economic benefits for a period of 40 years. Net economic benefits equal the economic benefits minus the economic costs of the project. Economic benefits include savings in generation costs (because generating electricity from geothermal resources can cost less than from fuel oil or diesel), and reductions in CO2 emissions. Economic costs are the capital expenditures needed to complete all project stages. We then bring the economic benefits and costs to present value (PV) with a social discount rate of 12 percent (in real terms).217 The geothermal project is economically viable if the PV of the project’s net benefits is positive—if economic benefits outweigh economic costs. Further details about the assumptions and methodology we use are presented in Appendix A. 11.5.2 Financial analysis We use the discounted cash flow (DCF) method to determine whether the geothermal project in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines is financially viable for equity investors. We conclude that the geothermal project allows the equity investors to earn a 15 percent real rate of return when the PPA rate is about US$0.16/kWh. This PPA rate is the tariff at which the geothermal projects would need to sell each kWh of electricity to be able to service their debts and provide equity investors with a 15 percent real return. This PPA rate is feasible to implement, because it is significantly lower than the current electricity tariff from fuel oil generation of US$0.35/kWh.218 The final PPA rate will be determined through negotiations between the partners of the project. (80.1) 217. IDB, “Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of IDB-Funded Projects,” June 2012, http://idbdocs.iadb.org/wsdocs/getdocument. aspx?docnum=36995807. 218. CARILEC, 2014 Average Tariffs in EC Countries (2015). 96 PV costs US$ MILLIONSPDF Image | Unlocking Geothermal Power Eastern Caribbean Powerhouse
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