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Under existing conditions, geothermal technologies will continue to achieve only limited rates of market penetration and will fail to capture the myriad of benefits that geothermal can offer to the nation. The results of the GeoVision barriers analysis illustrate that if the industry continues along business-as-usual projections, then geothermal resources and technologies will remain a relatively small niche player in the energy sector. The limitations in existing exploration technologies add significant time and risk to geothermal developments overall. This barrier is reflected in increased project financing and development costs, thus linking to and compounding financial barriers to geothermal developments. Geothermal exploration and drilling technologies have historically been developed for exploring identified resources, not undiscovered resources. Beyond the improvements necessary to better explore for identified resources, a new class of exploration technologies will be required to identify, delineate, target, and develop undiscovered conventional resources in a cost-effective manner. Details about these limitations and opportunities are discussed in Doughty et al. 2018. Once conventional geothermal systems are developed, continued project success relies on cost-effective, sustainable, long-term resource and asset management. Overcoming the technical barriers to this objective requires tackling complex issues, a factor rolled into long-term operating costs and reflected in the high initial costs of geothermal development. Long-term geothermal resource and asset management can be improved through new technologies in data collection, monitoring, modeling, and assessment, all of which can ultimately improve project economics. These topics are discussed in Lowry et al. 2017. 2.4.1.2 Enhanced Geothermal Systems The principal technical barrier to EGS resource development is that the subsurface must be engineered so that heat can be extracted economically for power generation or direct-use applications. This task is extremely challenging, especially for deep-EGS resources, given a starting resource condition that might contain heat but no practical means for extraction of that energy resource. EGS development draws some parallels to unconventional oil and gas development47 in that each requires creating and sustaining a functional resource by using reservoir stimulation technologies. However, the ultimate goal of reservoir creation in EGS is unique. In unconventional oil and gas, the high energy density of hydrocarbons supports cost-effective creation of a limited reservoir volume and extraction of a relatively low cumulative volume of oil or gas from near the wellbore. This extraction occurs under short-lived, high initial-production conditions, followed by rapid production declines. By contrast, an EGS reservoir requires sustained circulation of high flow rates of water over long periods of time, requiring large reservoir volumes. In oil and gas, the cost of a well may be recovered in a matter of just months, with subsequent production yielding profit after comparatively minimal operational and maintenance costs. The economic conditions constraining EGS, by contrast, are fundamentally different due to the comparatively low energy density of hot water. EGS wells will need to support the extraction of this lower-energy-density hot water over payback periods on the order of a decade (Glacier Partners 2009). These technical realities drive a requirement for volumetrically large reservoirs with distributed fractures that support efficient heat exchange and can be sustained over long periods of time. An entirely new class of reservoir stimulation technologies may be required to achieve EGS development. These technologies are likely to involve a combination of 1) high-pressure reservoir stimulation, coupled with chemical-treatment technologies 47 “Unconventional resources” is an umbrella term that refers to, “oil and natural gas that is produced by means that do not meet the criteria for conventional production” (EIA Glossary n.d.). Under existing technical and economic conditions, tight oil resources are considered a major subset of unconventional oil and gas resources (EIA 2018). Tight oil resources are defined as those produced from petroleum-bearing formations with low permeability that must be stimulated to produce oil at commercial rates (e.g., the Eagle Ford, the Bakken Formation). 38 Chapter 2 | What is Geothermal Energy? Chapter 2PDF Image | What is Geothermal Energy
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