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which non-invasive (non-drilling) exploration technologies can characterize the geothermal resource. There are no existing exploration technologies that—on their own—can produce the improvements in drilling success and cost reductions necessary to trigger growth in geothermal resource deployment beyond historically modest trajectories. Instead, it is likely that new approaches to integrating existing technologies—as well as an entirely new class of innovative exploration technologies—will need to be developed to produce the required drilling success rates and cost reductions. The costs of pre-drilling and exploration drilling activities are comparatively small with respect to overall development costs; however, they directly influence subsequent drilling success rates and thus have a major financial impact on projects. In a 2016 analysis, Wall and Dobson found that exploration drilling results led to drilling full-sized45 development wells less than one- third of the time. Exploration, confirmation, and development-well drilling collectively account for 30%–50% of the costs of geothermal development (Bromley et al. 2010). The cascading effects of exploration activities—from pre-drilling geotechnical studies through exploration, confirmation, and development drilling—have a collective impact on overall project costs and success. The limitations of existing technologies that support these activities present significant technical barriers to geothermal development. Sections 2.4.1.1 and 2.4.1.2 discuss these limitations, and the GeoVision Roadmap includes research and development actions aimed at overcoming them. 2.4.1.1 Hydrothermal Resources As operators expand the U.S. geothermal power base, they have encountered increasing technical challenges in conventional hydrothermal resource availability. The principal barrier is a lack of adequate exploration and drilling technologies that can reliably find and delineate new resource targets. Conventional hydrothermal resources exist as both identified and undiscovered systems (Section 2.1). Until only recently, all geothermal power developments have been supported by identified hydrothermal resources, which have provided electricity generation in the western United States since 1960. Of the 9 GWe of identified hydrothermal resources, roughly 3 GWe have already been developed,46 meaning that the majority of the remaining conventional hydrothermal resource potential is the 30 GWe of undiscovered hydrothermal systems estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey (Williams 2008b). Undiscovered hydrothermal systems do not have surface manifestations such as geysers, hot springs, or fumaroles to indicate their presence. Available data indicate that undiscovered hydrothermal resources exist, and some have been discovered and economically developed—e.g., the Don A. Campbell geothermal power plant (Nevada) (Orenstein and Delwiche 2014) and the McGinness Hills geothermal power plant (Nevada) (Nordquist and Delwiche 2013). By definition, however, the majority of undiscovered conventional resources have yet to be identified and confirmed. 45 For the purposes of the GeoVision analysis, full-sized wells are considered those with an 8.5” or larger bottom-hole diameter. 46 Some of the remaining identified hydrothermal resources are uneconomic to develop due to a combination of technical barriers that include insufficient size, temperature, and permeability, so that the amount of commercially competitive identified hydrothermal resources is even smaller. Of the remaining 6 GWe of identified geothermal resources, nearly 2 GWe of developable geothermal resource potential have been identified at the Salton Sea Geothermal Field in California (Gange et al. 2015). Chapter 2 | What is Geothermal Energy? 37 Looking southeast along Big Sulphur Creek canyon with the McCabe geothermal power plant in foreground (The Geysers in California). Photo credit: Karl Urbank and Earl Holley Chapter 2PDF Image | What is Geothermal Energy
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