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Sustainability 2020, 12, 20 6 of 21 The price of energy has shown a significant relationship (in terms of magnitude) with the growth rate of energy intensity [28], while capital and labor prices have shown an insignificant association with the growth rate of energy intensity [54]. The combination of higher fossil fuel-based energy prices coupled with a substantial increase in electricity supply could have opened the way for an increase in energy efficiency, which in turn has reduced the rate of growth in energy intensity [54]. An increase or decrease in energy intensity does not necessarily correspond to the real change in the energy efficiency of the sector. This is one of the main limitations when the energy intensity is calculated in terms of the economic production of the industrial sectors instead of the physical production [55]. Lower energy consumption does not have to come at the expense of lower economic growth, and the objectives of reducing energy intensity can be an acceptable and effective compromise for developing countries. However, for a considerable number of countries, energy intensity is not decreasing, energy intensity has increased or remained steady since the 1980s. For these countries, lower energy consumption and robust economic growth seem to be in conflict, given their current technologies and their economic and energy structures [56]. Energy plays a positive and statistically significant role in economic growth. The intensity of the energy is a measure that the energy grows towards its stable state [57]. Investments in modern and energy efficient technologies and products have also affected the growth of the economy. Reducing energy consumption is crucial to improve the economic efficiency of the economy and its positive impact on international competitiveness [33]. The GDP of individual economies or purchasing power parity (PPP) can drastically change the calculations of energy intensity improvement [34]. It has been suggested that purchasing power parity (PPP) is the most correct approach as it is the real purchasing power of each GDP that will drive the energy use of an economy [51]. A solid version of the PPP theory is based on the law of one price. Rounding up complicated factors such as transportation costs, taxes, and tariffs, the law of a price establishes that any good that is traded on world markets will be sold for the same price in all countries that are engaged in trade, when prices are expressed in a common currency [58]. The improvement in energy intensity for a group of economies will generally have a downward bias if calculated using market exchange rates instead of purchasing power parities [51]. Given the impact of the energy system on climate change, essentially emissions from fossil fuel combustion, many countries have made efforts to decouple energy use from economic growth. Decoupling consists of increasing the energy productivity of economic activities such that more output can be produced per unit of energy used [59–61]. Energy efficiency measures are expected to be the main factor in reducing energy intensity and an indicator of successful decoupling. In fact, energy policies in Europe and elsewhere place high expectations on energy efficiency improvements to reduce primary and final energy consumption [62]. 2.1. Scenarios Considered for Analysis The construction of scenarios allows exposing a set of alternatives regarding the future. The construction of scenarios can be seen as a subset of strategic forecast that can be defined as the creation of multiple possible futures to support strategies [63,64]. The construction of the scenario is based on assumptions about what the future might look like one day: what direction certain trends could take, which developments could remain constant, and which could change over time. The scenarios are descriptions of journeys to possible futures [65]. They reflect different assumptions about how current trends will unfold, how critical uncertainties will develop, and what new factors will come into play [66]. The model combines different sectors through feedback mechanisms to capture the complexity of the behavior of the economic–climatic system. The matrix of productive sectors used in this study consists of six sections: (i) transport, (ii) industry, (iii) residential, (iv) commercial, services and public administration, (v) agriculture, fishing and mining, (vi) construction and others. The energy matrixPDF Image | Energy Intensity and CO2 Emissions in Ecuador
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