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The model combines different sectors through feedback mechanisms to capture the complexity of the behavior of the economic–climatic system. The matrix of productive sectors used in this study consists of six sections: (i) transport, (ii) industry, (iii) residential, (iv) commercial, services and public administration, (v) agriculture, fishing and mining, (vi) construction and others. The energy matrix Sustainability 2020, 12, 20 7 of 21 consists of the following primary energy sources: oil, natural gas, hydroelectric power, cane products, and other primary products. The final energy sources are: electricity, LGP, gasoline, kerosene and airdraft fuel, diesel, fuel oil, gases, reduced crude oil, and non-energy. Non-conventional renewable consists of the following primary energy sources: oil, natural gas, hydroelectric power, cane products, energies include: solar photovoltaic, wind, biomass, biogas, and biofuels. This structural approach and other primary products. The final energy sources are: electricity, LGP, gasoline, kerosene and allows a more scientific representation of feedback relationships. airdraft fuel, diesel, fuel oil, gases, reduced crude oil, and non-energy. Non-conventional renewable A set of scenarios was developed that seeks to identify trends in energy intensity and CO2 energies include: solar photovoltaic, wind, biomass, biogas, and biofuels. This structural approach emissions related to final energy consumption in Ecuador. The scenarios necessarily include allows a more scientific representation of feedback relationships. subjective elements and are open to various interpretations. The formulation of the scenarios is A set of scenarios was developed that seeks to identify trends in energy intensity and CO2 necessary to predict the evolution of the main variables, which can promote energy generation emissions related to final energy consumption in Ecuador. The scenarios necessarily include subjective policies, and to project the consumption and mitigation of CO2 emissions. elements and are open to various interpretations. The formulation of the scenarios is necessary to For the purposes of this research, three scenarios were proposed: BAU (abbreviation of business predict the evolution of the main variables, which can promote energy generation policies, and to as usual). This scenario refers to the current way in which the systems are being developed and what project the consumption and mitigation of CO2 emissions. would happen if we continue under the same conditions. SCENARIO1 considers all the policies For the purposes of this research, three scenarios were proposed: BAU (abbreviation of business proposed by the national government for future projections. SCENARIO2 is a scenario of global as usual). This scenario refers to the current way in which the systems are being developed and what trends of industrialized countries. would happen if we continue under the same conditions. SCENARIO1 considers all the policies The business as usual (BAU) scenario projects the current trends identified by each nation, proposed by the national government for future projections. SCENARIO2 is a scenario of global trends assumes that past trends will continue in the future and that no new policies will be implemented for of industrialized countries. this case of research related to energy production and consumption. The business as usual (BAU) scenario projects the current trends identified by each nation, assumes SCENARIO1 contemplates the government plans and strategies that have been established for that past trends will continue in the future and that no new policies will be implemented for this case the coming years in Ecuador regarding energy production and consumption. The following of research related to energy production and consumption. documents are taken into account: National Energy Agenda 2014–2040, National Energy Balance SCENARIO1 contemplates the government plans and strategies that have been established for the 2015–2017, National Energy Efficiency Plan 2016–2035, Electricity Master Plan 2016–2025, coming years in Ecuador regarding energy production and consumption. The following documents Electrification Master Plan 2013–2022, Analysis of R&D&I opportunities in Energy Efficiency and are taken into account: National Energy Agenda 2014–2040, National Energy Balance 2015–2017, Renewable Energies in Ecuador, and National Climate Change Strategy of Ecuador 2012–2025. The National Energy Efficiency Plan 2016–2035, Electricity Master Plan 2016–2025, Electrification Master policies in SCENARIO1 raises concerns including: prioritizing the use of renewable energy sources, Plan 2013–2022, Analysis of R&D&I opportunities in Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energies in promoting the use of hydroelectric energy, and replacing inefficient thermal generation. The massive Ecuador, and National Climate Change Strategy of Ecuador 2012–2025. The policies in SCENARIO1 introduction of efficient lighting in homes and public roads is proposed. It suggests the application raises concerns including: prioritizing the use of renewable energy sources, promoting the use of of standard and technical regulations for the labeling of household appliances, and the replacement hydroelectric energy, and replacing inefficient thermal generation. The massive introduction of efficient of equipment with high energy consumption. The replacement of LPG by electricity is proposed with lighting in homes and public roads is proposed. It suggests the application of standard and technical the implementation of induction cookers, implementation of energy management systems in the regulations for the labeling of household appliances, and the replacement of equipment with high main industries. The scenario promotes the implementation of sustainable transport that considers energy consumption. The replacement of LPG by electricity is proposed with the implementation of electricity and not hydrocarbons as the main source of energy. The scenario also considers induction cookers, implementation of energy management systems in the main industries. The scenario improvement in the management of electricity companies necessary, an energy sovereignty is promotes the implementation of sustainable transport that considers electricity and not hydrocarbons considered as one of the pillars of a new Ecuador. as the main source of energy. The scenario also considers improvement in the management of electricity Finally, SCENARIO2 considers the environmental dimension of sustainable development goals, companies necessary, an energy sovereignty is considered as one of the pillars of a new Ecuador. global environmental governance, multilateral environmental agreements, and global Finally, SCENARIO2 considers the environmental dimension of sustainable development goals, macroeconomic perspectives for sustainable development, replacement strategies for clean energy global environmental governance, multilateral environmental agreements, and global macroeconomic and energy efficiency, are considering the projections or trends of the reports of organizations such perspectives for sustainable development, replacement strategies for clean energy and energy efficiency, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), International Energy Agency (IEA), and are considering the projections or trends of the reports of organizations such as the Intergovernmental BP, among others (Figure 4) Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), International Energy Agency (IEA), and BP, among others (Figure 4). 2.2. Modeling and Simulation Figure 4. General block diagram of the model. Figure 4. General block diagram of the model. The modelling of the energy system is a complex problem due to the presence of multiple decision makers, the complexity of consumer behavior, the feedback processes between the modules, technological limitations, and various types of delays. The system dynamics model (SDM) isPDF Image | Energy Intensity and CO2 Emissions in Ecuador
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