Energy Intensity and CO2 Emissions in Ecuador

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Energy Intensity and CO2 Emissions in Ecuador ( energy-intensity-and-co2-emissions-ecuador )

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Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 22 2.2. Modeling and Simulation The modelling of the energy system is a complex problem due to the presence of multiple Sustainability 2020, 12, 20 8 of 21 decision makers, the complexity of consumer behavior, the feedback processes between the modules, technological limitations, and various types of delays. The system dynamics model (SDM) is an appropriate approach to model such complexities, since it is a powerful modeling technique to an appropriate approach to model such complexities, since it is a powerful modeling technique to understand and explore the feedback structure in complex systems. The strength of this model lies understand and explore the feedback structure in complex systems. The strength of this model lies in in its ability to understand nonlinearity in the dynamics, feedback, and delay time [67]. its ability to understand nonlinearity in the dynamics, feedback, and delay time [67]. The proposed system dynamics model was simulated using Vensim software, a modeling tool The proposed system dynamics model was simulated using Vensim software, a modeling tool commonly used to build, simulate, and analyze dynamic model systems based on causal loops or commonly used to build, simulate, and analyze dynamic model systems based on causal loops or stock and flow diagrams. The system dynamics model was designed to estimate energy consumption, stock and flow diagrams. The system dynamics model was designed to estimate energy consumption, economic growth, energy intensity, and CO2 emissions in Ecuador in 2030. To accomplish the economic growth, energy intensity, and CO2 emissions in Ecuador in 2030. To accomplish the research research objective, traditional energy resources of Ecuador are considerate (Figure 5). objective, traditional energy resources of Ecuador are considerate (Figure 5). Figure 5. Simplified influence diagram for the input-output analysis in the Ecuador model. Figure 5. Simplified influence diagram for the input-output analysis in the Ecuador model. An economy that depends more on fossil fuels will have more emissions than an economy An economy that depends more on fossil fuels will have more emissions than an economy that that depends on renewable energy [17]. The primary energy matrix of Ecuador has historically depends on renewable energy [17]. The primary energy matrix of Ecuador has historically been been dominated by oil production Figure 6. Historically renewable energies have not had a great dominated by oil production Figure 6. Historically renewable energies have not had a great participation in a primary energy matrix. However, the production of hydropower has increased participation in a primary energy matrix. However, the production of hydropower has increased by by 72% between 2000 and 2015, while the production of other primary sources such as wind and 72% between 2000 and 2015, while the production of other primary sources such as wind and Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 22 photovoltaic energy began in 2007 [68]. photovoltaic energy began in 2007 [68]. Figure 6. Evolution of primary energy production in kilobarrels of oil equivalents (KBOE) [68]. Figure 6. Evolution of primary energy production in kilobarrels of oil equivalents (KBOE) [68]. Research on the analysis of emissions and energy consumption has been carried out in Ecuador, including an analysis of the possible dimension of the physical impact of climate change and its economic quantification in different areas, such as water resources, agriculture, biodiversity, marine and coastal resources, health, infrastructure, extreme events, and the Galapagos Islands were carried out by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) in 2013. To analyze

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