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Sustainability 2020, 12, 20 10 of 21 Related studies between energy consumption and polluting emissions support the impact of the structure of energy consumption on air [72–74]. GDP growth and fossil fuel energy consumption are mentioned as major sources of CO2 emission [75–77]. The total of emissions produced is calculated with the following expression: ECO2 = Est × FCEt (2) where ECO2 is the total of CO2 emissions; “s” is the consumer sector; “t” is the type of final energy consumed; and FCEt is the conversion factor of CO2 emissions per type of energy consumed. The conversion factors for CO2 emissions (FCEt) from the different energy sources employed to calculate ECO2 are shown in Table 1. Table 1. CO2 emission conversion factors [78]. Conversion Factors CO2 Emission Petroleum Natural gas Firewood Cane Products Electricity Petroleum liquid gas Gasolines Kerosene and Turbo Diesel Fuel Oil Solar / Wind Asphalts and lubricants 2.3. Model Validation After the model has been calibrated using the original system dataset, a “final” validation is conducted using the second system dataset. The validation of a system dynamics model consists of two broad components: structure validation and behavior validation. The validation of the structure means establishing that the relationships used in the model are an adequate representation of the real relationships, with respect to the purpose of the study. Behavior validation consists of demonstrating that the behavior of the model is “close enough” to the actual behavior observed. The validation of the model to test its predictive power and robustness in the first instance was performed comparing the official data from 2000 to 2015. The validation method was performed by calculating the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), which is defined as: MAPE(%) = × 100 (3) n At where MAPE is the mean absolute percentage error, and At, Ft, and “n” are the real data, the calculated values, and the number of data, respectively. Table 2 shows the values obtained from the MAPE method. These results indicate the strength of the model. In this investigation, we note that CO2 emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels consumed by the six economic sectors of Ecuador. (Kg CO2/BOE) 448.54 343.29 685.36 433.24 − 386.13 424.06 439.97 453.44 473.63 − 448.54 (Kg CO2/TJ) 73,300 56,100 112,000 70,800 − 63,100 69,300 71,900 74,100 77,400 − 73,300 1At−FtPDF Image | Energy Intensity and CO2 Emissions in Ecuador
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