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Sustainability 2020, 12, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 22 Sustainability 2020, 12, 20 13 of 21 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Diesel Oil Gases LGP Electricity Gasolines Non Energetic Fuel Oil Kerosene and Turbo Residue Final energy supply - BAU Final energy supply - Scenario1 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Diesel Oil Gases LGP Electricity Gasolines Non Energetic Fuel Oil Kerosene and Turbo Residue Final energy supply - Scenario 2 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Diesel Oil Gases LGP Electricity Gasolines Non Energetic Fuel Oil Kerosene and Turbo Residue Figure 10. Final energy supply scenarios. Figure 10. Final energy supply scenarios. The projected final energy demand reaches 206,681.22 KBOE in the BAU scenario, being the fastest growTinhge(Fpirgoujercete1d1).fiPnraoljecnteinrgythdemscaendariroesacthaetsc2o0n6s,6id8e1r.2n2aKtioBnOaElpinolitchiesBoArUwosrcledntareino,dbs,ewinegctahne ofabstersvtegtrhoawtitnhge(pFrigoudruect1i1o)n. Pdreocjreecatisnegs,tmheasincelynadruioesttohathtecoenffisicdienrcnyatoifonthael ptyopliecioesf eonrewrgoyrldpltarnenedds, two ebecaunseodbs[8e2rv].e Tthaetetffihecipenrocyduocftihoynddroepcroewaseersi,smauinclhybdeuttertothtahne tehfeficeiffienccieynocfy tohfefotyspsiel foufeelsn[e8r3g]y, tphleatnrnaendsitiobnetousrende[w82a]b.lTeheenerffgiiceisenseceynoifnhbyodtrhospcoewnaerrioismleaudcshubsetoteartdheamnatnhdeepfrfoicjeiectniocynoff1o7s1s,i0l9f3u.e9l4s a[n83d],1t1h2e,2t8r6a.n7s8itKioBnOtEoirnentheewsacbelneeerineesr1giaensdse2e,nreisnpebcottihveslcye.narios leads us to a demand projection of 171,0F9i3g.u9r4ea1n2dsh1o1w2,2s8t6h.e78diKffBerOenEtisncethnearsicoesnoefrGieDs 1P agnrodw2t,hreinspEecutiavdeolyr.. Economic growth in any of the scenarios will be affected by the oil barrel price. Government policies are set based on the growth of exports of non-traditional products, the exploitation of new oil fields, and mainly by the level of foreign investment [84]. Ecuador has proven oil reserves of 8.3 billion barrels [48]. The average GDP growth rate for the simulation period shows a 3.84% growth in the BAU scenario, 3.22% in SCENARIO1, and 3.45% in SCENARIO2. 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 KBOE KBOE 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 KBOEPDF Image | Energy Intensity and CO2 Emissions in Ecuador
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