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Sustainability 2020, 12, 20 16 of 21 low levels in Ecuador. The projections of CO2 emissions from final energy were 75,182.6; 43,938.3, and 342,191.4 KTCO2 in the BAU, SCENARIO 1, and SCENARIO 2, respectively. 4. Discussion In order to analyze the energy intensity of Ecuador and project the production of CO2 emissions in Ecuador during the period 2000–2030, an integrated systems dynamics model was developed based on a Vensim software framework [80]. The BAU, SCENARIO1, and SCENARIO2 projections for 2030 maintain a growth in the supply and demand of final energy in relation to the 2015 values. The projections of final energy demand forecast the largest increase in the BAU scenario at 206,681.22 KBOE and the lowest growth for SCENARIO2 at 112,286.78 KBOE. A close relationship could be observed between the final energy supply and the final energy demand, which could be mainly associated with a transition towards energy production from renewable energies [58,85–87]. The application of the measures derived from the BAU, SCENARIO1, and SCENARIO2 project an approximate increase of 42% in GDP by 2030 compared to 2015 GDP, the year in which the simulation of the model began, while SCENARIO2 forecasts a smaller increase compared to the other two scenarios of 34% (Figure 12). A significant reduction in energy intensity could be expected. This improvement would be associated with a change in the national energy matrix; through the replacement of the use of fossil fuels by renewable energy sources [88,89]. SCENARIO1 and SCENARIO2 expect a production of CO2 emissions of 43,938.3 and 42,191.4 KTCO2 by 2030, respectively. If environmental trends are taken into account and policies proposed by developed countries, the production of carbon emissions would reduce the average growth rate from 1.64% in SCENARIO1 to 1.08% in SCENARIO2. Energy efficiency contributes to the reduction of expenses in the entire energy chain, decreases the dependence on energy imports, mitigates damage to the global and local environment, contributes to the improvement of the productive efficiency of the country and has positive impacts in terms of social equity [90–92]. It also directs economic activity towards activities of high added value and low energy consumption. Recent efforts in energy efficiency have not achieved what is necessary in a transversal way and the results thus far have not met expectations. This is largely because the largest amount of energy used in Ecuador comes from fossil sources. Since 2016, fossil fuels have represented 77.65% of total energy consumption, with the transport sector being the main emitter of greenhouse gases. Sectors such as transport or industry maintain a tendency to consume more energy, and due to its fossil origin, these sectors produce a greater amount of emissions and are very inefficient in terms of energy. In the transport sector, it is necessary to review the quality of the fuel and the quality of the hydrocarbons. The infrastructure for transport circulation must be optimized, contributing to reduction of fuel consumption. Projects must be continued to replace inefficient public transport technologies. The results obtained through the system dynamics model, developed to simulate the scenarios of energy intensity and production of CO2 emissions by 2030, will work as a basis for proposals for future energy policies aimed at mitigating emissions and improving national energy efficiency. In comparison with the works carried out and cited in the bibliographic review, it is observed that this research shows a more up-to-date panorama on the economic-environmental scenario of Ecuador. The energy perspective may change depending on the projects implemented by the government. The projection of the studies carried out shows a notable increase of CO2 emissions if the current conditions of energy consumption and the energy mix based on non-renewable energies are maintained.PDF Image | Energy Intensity and CO2 Emissions in Ecuador
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