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The total installed costs of geothermal power plant can be as low as USD 560/kW for brownfield projects where capacity is being added to a geothermal reservoir which is already well mapped and understood, and where existing infrastructure can be used. Such cases are, however, somewhat rare. Data for recent projects shows that total installed costs for most projects have largely fallen in the range of USD 2 000/kW to USD 5 000/kW, although smaller projects in new markets have experienced higher costs. The swings in new capacity additions between 2010 and 2013 saw volatile weighted average total installed costs for geothermal. Since 2014, new capacity additions have been more stable, though (in the range of 440 MW to 680 MW per year), while global weighted-average total installed costs have been between USD 3 496/kW and USD 4 171/kW. Capacity factors for geothermal are typically high, with projects utilising low-temperature resources thatrequirebinarypowerproductiontechnologies typically delivering capacity factors of 60% to 80%. Geothermal plants using high-temperature resources and“flash”technologiesconsistentlydelivercapacity factors higher than 80%, with few outliers below that value. Plants using direct-steam technologies also see capacity factors around 80%. A factor crucial to maintaining these capacity factors over the life of the plant is an active management plan for the reservoir, which will often necessitate additional production wells over the life of the project. This is one of the reasons why O&M costs for geothermal, at an assumed USD 110/kW/year, are much higher than all but offshore wind and CSP plants. Yet geothermal power generation still offers a competitive source of new electricity generation. In 2019, the global weighted-average LCOE of newly commissioned geothermal plants was USD 0.073/kWh and, with some small inter-year variations, has been around USD 0.07/kWh since 2016. NEW SOLAR PV AND ONSHORE WIND: INCREASINGLY CHEAPER THAN THE MARGINAL COSTS OF EXISTING COAL-FIRED CAPACITY Data from the IRENA Auction and PPA Database suggests that for utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind, the new capacity that has been procured competitively and will be commissioned in 2021 will have significantly lower costs than the global weighted-average for 2019. Indeed, the average price of projects awarded through auction/tender or via a PPA, will fall to USD 0.043/kWh for onshore wind and USD 0.039/kWh for utility-scale solar PV. These values are cheaper than the marginal operating costs of an increasing number of existing coal-fired power plants, raising the risk that there are an increasing number of stranded assets. Carbon Tracker’s assessment of short-run marginal costs (Carbon Tracker, 2018) for over 2 000 GW of global coal-fired capacity suggests that for 2021, around 1 200 GW of coal-fired capacity could have operating costs higher than the average price of electricity from auctions for solar PV, which are estimated to average USD 0.039/kWh in that year. Around 850 GW of this existing coal would also higher operating costs than the estimated average LATEST COST TRENDS 37PDF Image | RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2019
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