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New capacity added over this period covers an estimated 76% of cumulative installed capacity out to 2021. In both cases, this is materially higher than the estimated LCOE learning rate calculated by IRENA in 2018, which was 21%, and represents the more rapid fall in the cost of electricity than was implied by the data available two years ago, although part of the reduction to 2021 comes from a more detailed treatment of the non-indexed price contracts in the Auctions and PPA Database. Utility-scale solar PV has the highest estimated learning rate for the cost of electricity over the period 2010 to 2019, of 36%. The learning rate rises to 40% when the Auction and PPA data are used to extend the time series out to 2021, a period over which 95% of cumulative installed capacity for this technology will have been added. The learning rate for CSP for the period 2010 to 2019 is 23%. It rises to 38% for the period 2010 to 2021 using the PPA and Auction prices in this report for 2020 and 2021, when an estimated 83% of cumulative installed capacity for this technology will have been deployed. These learning rates represent quite remarkable rates of deflation for wind and, in particular, solar power technologies. Just quite how remarkable can be seen by comparing solar and wind power cost declines to Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for individual unit costs. For instance, of the price quotes for 531 individual items that are used to compile the United Kingdom’s CPI index, only five items13 (all of relatively little weight in a household’s annual consumption) saw price declines of 23% to 32% (nominal) between January 2010 and August 2019. At the same time, however, the global nominal LCOE decline of solar PV was over 70%, that of CSP over 40%, that of onshore wind 35%, and that of offshore wind 24%. Figure 1.11 The global weighted-average LCOE and Auction/PPA price learning curve trends for solar PV, CSP, onshore and offshore wind, 2010 – 2021/23 LATEST COST TRENDS 0.500 0.400 0.300 0.200 0.150 0.100 0.070 0.050 0.040 0.030 0.020 0.015 0.010 1000 2000 5000 10000 20000 50000 100000 200000 500000 1000000 Cumulative deployment (MW) Historical Estimate Concentrating solar power Offshore wind Onshore wind Solar photovoltaic 2010 2011 2012 2013 2017 2019 2014 2015 20102011 2016 2012 2018 2020 2021 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2020 2021 2022 2023 2010 2011 2017 2013 2018 2019 2018 2019 2020 2021 2020 2021 2017 2019 20152016 Fossil fuel cost range Source: IRENA. Note: The LCOE and auction price data are for utility-scale projects. 13 These were: strawberries, fruit smoothies, internet computer games, household cleaner and underground/metro fares outside London. 39 2019 USD/kWhPDF Image | RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2019
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