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Table 4.3 Regional and country weighted average LCOE of offshore wind, 2010 and 2019 OFFSHORE WIND 2010 2019 5th percentile Weighted average 95th percentile 5th percentile Weighted average 95th percentile (2019 USD/kWh) Asia China 0.116 0.177 0.189 0.094 0.112 0.119 Japan 0.214 0.214 0.214 0.198 0.198 0.198 Europe 0.111 0.159 0.178 0.087 0.117 0.157 Belgium 0.198 0.198 0.198 0.119 0.119 0.119 Denmark 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.087 0.087 0.087 Germany 0.178 0.179 0.181 0.104 0.120 0.155 United Kingdom 0.152 0.163 0.17 0.089 0.121 0.142 Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database Floating offshore wind The development of the offshore wind sector has exceeded expectations. With zero subsidy projects in Germany and the Netherlands, and auction prices in the UK coming in at lower than the expected wholesale electricity price, offshore wind has announced its arrival as a competitive source of renewable electricity at scale. However, these projects are typically in relatively shallow waters. There is still a huge technical potential that can be unlocked in waters deeper than 60 metres. Installations in these water depths would enable countries such as Japan, where the seabed drops away rapidly as distance from the coast increases, to install significant volumes of offshore wind. However, the use of fixed-bottom foundations presents not only a technical challenge, but an economic one. The most promising solution to the economic challenge of offshore wind in deep waters is the use of floating foundations. From a technical and economic perspective, floating foundations offer an attractive solution, because they can build on the of the oil and gas industries deepwater experience with floating production platforms. This could allow floating wind to complement fixed-bottom developments by allowing greater deployment in deepwater locations, potentially closer to load centres, but also where seabed conditions mean fixed-bottom foundations are impractical even in shallow waters. The potential scale of resources that could be unlocked by floating wind is impressive. For example, the potential resource in Europe in water depths of 60 m or more is 4 TW, almost twice the potential in shallower waters. In the United States, the offshore wind potential in deep waters is estimated at 2.45 TW and in Japan at 0.5 TW – representing 60% and 80% of total potential offshore wind resources in those countries respectively (Carbon Trust,2015). In both the United States and Japan, floating wind could play a very important role, given the close proximity of good deepwater offshore wind resources to major cities, which are usually high electricity demand centres. In China, where a large share of installations has been near-shore, there is potential for over 2.2 TW of offshore wind in depths between 50-100m (IRENA, 2019b). IRENA’s analysis of a sustainable pathway that is consistent with meeting the Paris Agreement goals projects that floating offshore wind installed capacity might grow to 5-30 GW by 2030 and 50-150 GW by 2050 (IRENA, 2019b and IRENA, 2020b). Box 4.1 85PDF Image | RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2019
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