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60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Linear Fresnel Parabolic trough Solar tower Storage (hours) no storage 0 to 4 h 4 to 8 h 8+ h Capacity (MW) 1 100 200 ≥ 300 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2019 The range of installed costs in 2019 is between 16% and 19% higher than in 2018. The data for 2019 include two Israeli projects that were much delayed (one ST and one PTC project). One of these projects was first announced in 2008, with the winning bid succeeding in 2012. These projects continued between 2014 and 2017, using technology and capital cost structures of that time (Power Technology, 2016; SolarPACES/NREL, 2020). Excluding these projects results in capacity weighted-average installed costs of USD 5 774/kW in 2019 – a value 10% higher than in 2018, but 36% lower than in 2010. Year-on-year variability in average capital costs remains high, however, given the small number of projects commissioned in each year. During 2018 and 2019, the IRENA’s Renewable Cost Database shows a capital cost range of between USD 3 183/kW and USD 8 645/kW for CSP projects with storage capacities of between 4 and 8 hours. In the same period, the cost range of projects with 8 hours or more of thermal storage capacities was narrower – between USD 4077/kW and USD 5874/kW – and had a lower maximum value due to the fact these projects were in China. CAPACITY FACTORS The quality of the solar resource is the determining factor, along with the technology configuration, of the achievable capacity factor for a given location and technology. Adding storage capacity can increase the capacity factor, up to a certain level, given there are diminishing marginal returns. However, this is a complex design optimisation that is driven by the desire to minimise the LCOE. The LCOE is being optimised, given the site solar resource, across the storage capacity and the necessary solar field size to minimise LCOE and ensure optimal utilisation of the heat generated. This is a delicate balance, as smaller than optimal solar field sizes result in under utilisation of the thermal energy storage system and the selected power block. A larger than optimal solar field size would add additional capital costs, but with the potential heat generation being curtailed at times due to lack of storage and generation capacity. The fact that costs for thermal energy storage have fallen and operating temperatures increased, has lowered the cost of storage and has increased the optimal level of storage to minimise LCOE in a given location. Figure 8.3 Capacity factor trends for CSP plants, 2010-2019 Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database. Note: Only projects in the database with information available for all the variables displayed are shown. Data can therefore diverge from the global dataset. 124 Capacity factorPDF Image | RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2019
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