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0.5 0.4 0.346 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Weighted average LCOE database 0.259 0.182 0.075 2019 2020 2021 Weighted average Auction database 2010 2011 2012 2013 Australia Chile 2014 2015 Auction database China France 2016 2017 LCOE database 2018 Morocco South Africa Note: Dashed blue bar in 2019 shows the weighted average value including projects in Israel. Greece India Spain United Arab Emirates Kuwait United States of America Israel RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS 2019 This was driven newer South African CSP projects with lower costs than the first plants, while there was also deployment in China – which has lower cost structures. The clear downward trend in the cost of electricity from CSP was reinforced in 2018 and 2019, as market deployment regained its 2014 level and yearly installations again exceeding the 600 MW mark. Coinciding with this market uptake, IRENA’s Renewable Cost Database shows that – excluding the two discussed Israeli projects – the LCOE of PTC and ST projects commissioned in 2018 and 2019 ranged between USD 0.100/kWh and USD 0.243/kWh (consistently below the 2017 value).34 In 2019, the global weighted-average LCOE of CSP plants declined 1% from its value in 2018 and 47% from its value in 2010, when the influence of the two Israeli projects coming online during 2019 is excluded. Despite relatively thin deployment compared to other technologies, the CSP market is likely to continue experiencing a downward trend in the cost of electricity, as indicated by the evolution of PPA announcements for CSP projects, due to come online in 2020 and 2021. These are also increasingly within the lower end of the fossil fuel range (Figure 8.6). Data in the IRENA Auction and PPA Database shows a weighted-average price of electricity of between USD 0.075/kWh and USD 0.094/kWh for CSP projects to be commissioned in 2020 and 2021. This represents a reduction of 48% to 59%, compared to the global weighted-average project LCOE in 2019. These figures should be interpreted with care, however, since they are not directly comparable with the LCOE metric discussed here. Yet, these announcements do point towards the increased competitiveness of CSP projects, compared to fossil fuel alternatives. With CSP costs likely to continue to decline, the technology can play an important role in a transition towards higher shares of VRE in electricity markets with excellent solar resource. CSP, with its low- cost, long-duration thermal energy storage and the technology’s ability to be dispatched when required, make it a complementary technology to solar PV and onshore wind (Lunz et al., 2016; Mehos et al., 2015). Figure 8.6 Levelised cost of electricity and auction price trends for CSP, 2010-2021 Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database and IRENA Auction and PPA Database. 34 Including the the most expensive Israeli project would push the range out to an upper value of USD 0.501/kWh, but as already discussed this is clearly an outlier in terms of technology configuration and costs due to the delays the project encountered. It is also not representative of the planned pipeline. 128 2019 USD/kWhPDF Image | RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2019
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