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CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER The LCOE of CSP, considering recently published PPA prices Although PPA details, including the agreed price, have been made available for some projects, comparing LCOE and PPA and auction data can be challenging. Yet, discussing their differences can also shed light on trends in competitiveness for a given technology. A notable example of such announced PPA details is Phase 4 of the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park, located in Dubai. This project, which was tendered by the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA), represents a step-change in CSP project competitiveness. The project consists of 600 MW of PTC and 100 MW of ST capacity.35 This is to be commissioned in stages, starting from the fourth quarter of 2020. The PPA price has been announced as USD 0.074/kWh for a duration of 35 years. Both these numbers are exceptional. They are also different from the benchmark conditions used for the LCOE calculation in this study, which assume 7.5% WACC and 25 years of economic life. In order to understand this PPA price and how it was achieved, an analysis of the different factors that see it deviate from the estimated LCOE of a benchmark CSP plant are given in Figure 8.7. The analysis takes as a starting point a reference plant in Dubai, based on a plant configuration for the PTC elements similar to the latest Moroccan Noor36 design, a 25 year economic life and a WACC of 7.5%. The chart then examines how the DEWA project then deviates from these parameters in order to achieve such a competitive auction price. Figure B8.1 Reconciling the LCOE of a benchmark CSP project to the PPA price for the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park, Phase 4 Project capacity dominated by PTC Solar tower more expensive than PTC Long duration (25 35 year economic life) Cost decline by late 2020 (learning) Competitive financing access (7.5% 4% WACC) Economies of scale & other PPA reported price 0.074 PTC & ST 0.140 0.120 0.100 0.080 0.060 0.040 0.020 0.000 PTC PTC & ST PTC & ST PTC & ST PTC & ST PTC & ST Source: IRENA. The project consists of 86% PTC technology, while a single ST will provide the remaining CSP. This will slightly increase costs compared to using PTC exclusively in Dubai, but not materially. The calculations for the economic life, learning rates and access to competitive financing are robust and based on publicly available information. The access to very competitive financing for the project is the largest contributor to the cost difference, followed by the long economic life and the learning effects that reduce costs. The remaining contribution to the very low PPA price is likely to be the result economies of scale this exceptionally large project has, from benefits from building the plant in stages with the same work force on the same site, through to better prices for procuring equipment, favourable production guarantee conditions, etc. Box 8.1 35 A later amendment has added 250 MW of solar PV capacity to the project plan, potentially complicating an analysis of the CSP component of the PPA given not all data is in the public domain. 36 For additional details on the Noor projects in the Moroccan Ouarzazate region see: https://solarpaces.nrel.gov/by-country/MA 129 2019 USD/kWhPDF Image | RENEWABLE POWER GENERATION COSTS IN 2019
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