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damage to electrolyte or separator, and long-term, repeated cycling degradation. Table 3 and Figure 3 present estimates of EV batteries reaching EOL from 2019 to 2030. These estimates were developed by Kelleher Environmental using a simple Lifespan Model based on a linear projection of the number of EV batteries reaching EOL reflecting HEV, PHEV and BEV sales from 2011 to 2018, as well as an assumption on EV sales from 2018 to 2023 outlined below. An elaborate material flow and lifespan model that accounts for a more granular distinction amongst changes in unit weights and different EV battery chemistries over time is beyond the scope of this study, but should be considered as a future research project and is included as a suggestion in Section 9. The EOL EV battery estimates presented in Table 3 were based on the following assumptions: • Unit sales of HEVs into the US market from 2000 to 2010 from various sources; • Unit sales of HEVs, PHEVs and BEVs sold into the US market shown in Table 1; • 50% of HEVs have NiMH batteries and 50% have li-ion batteries (based on 2018 data); • All PHEVs and BEVs have li-ion batteries; • Sales of PHEVs and BEVs combined would reach 1.3 million units in 2025. The assumed split between the two types of vehicles was assumed to be 500,000 PHEV units and 800,000 BEV units. Linear projections were used from 2018 to 2025; • It was assumed that the lifespans of NiMH and Li-ion EV batteries would have similar lifespans; • It was assumed that one third of all EV batteries would last 8 years, one third would have lifespans of 9 years and one third would have lifespans of 10 years for the EOL modelling; • Early retirement rates of 1% to 3% related to accidents and product failures were not included in this preliminary estimate. Table 3: Preliminary Estimate of EV Batteries Reaching EOL in the US (2019 -2030) Year Estimated NiMH Batteries at EOL (units) Estimated Li- ion Batteries at EOL (units) Total Estimated EV Batteries at EOL (units) 2019 229,694 50,635 280,328 2020 207,009 2022 229,181 2024 197,006 2026 174,091 2028 163,497 2030 163,497 140,114 347,124 320,032 549,213 329,378 526,384 414,004 588,094 645,395 808,892 918,143 1,081,640 2021 198,852 254,699 453,551 2023 221,277 333,280 554,557 2025 183,632 341,797 525,429 2027 170,779 517,228 688,007 2029 163,497 774,438 937,935 KELLEHER RESEARCH STUDY ON REUSE AND RECYCLING OF BATTERIES EMPLOYED IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES FINAL REPORT SEPTEMBER, 2019 PAGE 8PDF Image | Reuse and Recycling of Batteries Employed in Electric Vehicles
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