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three months of a test drive.353 Future Projections of EV Adoption Rates The following is a non-exhaustive list of factors that can may impact on US EV sales projections: • Battery costs, which influence EV cost competitiveness (price parity) with gasoline powered (ICE) vehicles: Some forecasters believe that investments being made by companies such as Tesla and Volkswagen will lead to a significant reduction in EV battery costs, which in turn will make EVs being more cost competitive with ICE vehicles and increase EV sales. However, if costs do not fall and government mandates are not enacted then it is possible that EVs will remain a niche product, more prevalent among high-end cars, performance vehicles, and fleets.354 In JP Morgan’s EV sales projection, it is assumed that battery costs will fall to around $100/kWh by the middle of the next decade or earlier.355 Bloomberg New Energy Finance (NEF) expects price parity between EVs and ICEs by the mid-2020s as well.356 • New EV model introductions: Historically, the majority of annual EV sales growth in the US has come from new model introductions.357 The prediction made by Loren McDonald/EVAdoption.com assumes thata“significantnumberof‘affordable’EVswillbe introducedinthe2020-2022timeframe. • Future battery manufacturing capacity: Bloomberg NEF’s projections assume that battery manufacturing capacity grows only enough to supply 10 million EVs annually by 2025 and there does not appear to be scope for future growth of battery manufacturing capacity in its modeling.358 Our assessment is that battery manufacturing capacity is unlikely to be a limiting factor given all the recent announcements of new battery manufacturing coming on line. • Overall vehicle sales: The prediction made by Loren McDonald/EVAdoption.com assumes that overall vehicle sales will experience a modest decline over the next several years as a result of a slowing economy, changing purchase behaviour including consumers keeping cars longer and forgoing second and third cars by sharing, as well as the increased use of ride-sharing services.359 Bloomberg NEF’s projection is also based on an assumption that shared mobility services will continue to grow, gradually reducing demand for private vehicle ownership. An overall decline in vehicle sales likely means slower growth for EVs as well, though an increase in market share.360 • Charging speed: Charging power, which determines the time required to charge an EV, can vary across charge points and will depend on how much money is invested into expanding charging infrastructure, particularly DC fast charging points. The prediction made by Loren McDonald/EVAdoption.com assumes that a DC fast charging time to 80% battery level will reduce to about 15-20 minutes by around 353 The International Council on Clean Transportation. July 2018. “The Continued Transition to Electric Vehicles in U.S. Cities.”PDF Image | Reuse and Recycling of Batteries Employed in Electric Vehicles
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