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2022. • Availability of charging points: Bloomberg NEF’s projection assumes that a portion of urban dwellers who may not have access to a plug at home or work will not be able to participate in EV ownership in the near future.361 • Demographics of demand: The current EV market is highly segmented; early adopters tend to be relatively affluent, environmentally conscious, and often own a second or third vehicle. Once the demand in this demographic is saturated, it is unclear how fast it will spread to other consumer segments. As noted by David Keith, an engineer and professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management, “the nightmare scenario for EVs it that the appeal won’t spread fast enough beyond ‘technies and greenies’ to sustain the growth of the early market.”362 Currently EVs also appeal to the “fashion driver” – a consumer who always buys the latest iPhone or other new gadget or electronic product as a fashion/lifestyle statement. • Fuel efficiency standards and environmental regulations: JP Morgan’s projection is partly based on the assumption that “tougher fuel economy regulation will likely push automakers to expand their EV offerings.” In contrast, the US EIA’s projection assumes that laws and policies remain unchanged.363 • Economic incentives: The US has a patchwork of state and federal incentives that can encourage EV adoption, which are subject to change every year. • Overall health of the economy: When the economy slows down, people keep their existing cars longer so fewer EVs and therefore EV batteries would get retired prematurely. The history of technology adoption in US households suggests that once market penetration of a new technology passes a threshold of around 2.5% to 5%, it then diffuses at a rapid rate.364 As shown in Figure 70, the adoption of automobiles moved from 2.5% to 50% in around 12 years, while color TV diffused at about the same rate, as did microwave ovens, cell phones, and the internet.365 For EVs, the rise in adoption from 2.5% to 30% has already occurred in Norway, taking 7 years or so. However, while the high number is true for Norway, and the country is often used as an example, it should be noted that many EVs in Norway are second cars which are used for short urban trips such as driving the kids to school, etc. and EV owners in Norway receive numerous benefits such as free parking, no vehicle tax, etc. making an EV cost competitive and as convenient, particularly in urban areas with a good charging infrastructure, as ICE vehicles. China passed a 2.5% EV adoption or penetration rate in 2017-2018 and the market penetration rate is expected to exceed 10% in late 2019 or 2020 (taking around 2.5 years).366 While theUSmaybelowerontheEVadoptioncurve,itisstillfollowingthesame pattern. 361 Holland, M. May 19, 2019. “BNEF’s Latest ‘Embarassingly’ Lowball EV Outlook.”PDF Image | Reuse and Recycling of Batteries Employed in Electric Vehicles
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