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The uncertainties in these estimates are relatively high, based on the range of estimates provided by the studies drawn upon for this report, and the judgment of the authors. While the individual reduction estimates are typically judged to be uncertain in a range of ±50%, and in some cases larger, the variety inherent in the mechanisms suggests a higher level of confidence when their combined effect is considered. The estimates assume full deployment (100% penetration) of smart grid technologies. Since the reductions are expected to be linear with respect to penetration level, this assumption enables the estimates to be readily scaled to lower levels of assumed penetration. The importance of these reduction estimates is in their combined effect. While several of the mechanisms are estimated to have small or negligible impacts, five of the mechanisms could potentially provide reductions of over 1%. Moreover, the combined effect of the direct mechanisms is 12%, and the indirect mechanisms total 6% of energy and emissions for the U.S. electricity sector. These correspond to 5% and 2% of the U.S. total energy consumption and energy-related CO2 emissions for all sectors (including electricity). The magnitude of these reductions suggests that, while a smart grid is not the primary mechanism for achieving aggressive national goals for energy and carbon savings, it is capable of providing a very substantial contribution to the goals for the electricity sector. Further, a smart grid may help overcome barriers to deployment of distributed solar renewables at penetrations higher than 20%. Recommendations and issues specific to each of the mechanisms are provided in the report to guide research and implementation efforts. Formulation of a common set of recommendations and issues is difficult due to the diversity and specificity of the mechanisms. Having said this, general recommendations for further examination are: • First and foremost, all technical mechanisms need to be considered in greater analytical depth to more rigorously address the quantification of and uncertainties for the estimated reductions in electricity and CO2 emissions to help set priorities for development of smart grid technologies. • Customer feedback is necessary for the effective implementation and communication of energy efficiency and demand response management programs to maintain sustained levels of reduction. Central to effective feedback is to understand and reduce the uncertainty associated with consumer behavior and response in order to design effective feedback mechanisms. • Coupled with feedback, the effectiveness of customer-side programs can be increased by leveraging smart grid assets to provide long-term M&V and diagnostics at little additional cost for the required analysis capabilities. The focus of this need is for analytic methods and software technologies, with decisions to locate the capability centrally or on the customer’s side of the meter. • Also evidenced in Table S.1, key research needs are in the areas of how smart grid technologies can support the 1) integration of renewable resources above the 20% RPS through a combination of demand response, renewable resources, and storage technologies, 2) addition of increased levels of electric vehicles to best utilize generating assets, and 3) management of voltage control and losses within the transmission and distribution system to reduce losses and increase reliability. A key issue that will impact the penetration of the smart grid technology, at least components of the technology that bear upon its functionality, is the acceptance by federal and state regulatory bodies. A major driver for this acceptance is the extent to which the smart grid technology proves to be a cost- effective replacement for traditional grid infrastructure while providing equal or improved levels of power viPDF Image | The Smart Grid: An Estimation of the Energy and CO2 Benefits
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