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6 Thomas Tartière et al. / Energy Procedia 129 (2017) 2–9 Thomas Tartière / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 5 there is a strong competition for new capital investment, with priorities given to alternatives that are closer to a company’s core business. Long-term paybacks also increase the financial risk of this kind of projects, and limit the access to low-cost financing. Finally, high utility standby rates often undermine the potential cost savings of on-site power generation [10]. ICE or Gas Turbine 65% Waste to energy 8.8% Metals 7.5% Cement & Lime 6.6% Glass 4.7% Biogas 1.5% Fig. 3. Shares of installed capacity per heat recovery application. 3. Evolution over time and new trends 3.1. Market evolution Figure. 4.a. represent the yearly installed capacity per application (biomass, geothermal, heat recovery, solar) with regards to the evolution of WTI crude oil price (as a reference of global energy price). The last x-label refers to projects in construction. Even if incentives and local market conditions can affect this trend, we can observe a strong correlation between global energy prices and new installed capacity. The development and construction of large projects typically take more than 12 months, so changes in yearly installed capacity are largely due to economic analysis carried out during the previous years. Figure 4.b depicts the new installed power per year for the major manufacturers. After a few decades (from 1980 to 2003) focused exclusively on geothermal applications, the ORC market has experienced a significant growth since the early 2000s, with an average yearly capacity between 75 and 200 MW, reaching up to 352 MWel in 2015. Geothermal power generation has always been the most important application, with a strong increase after 2009 and the entrance of Exergy and TAS in the market. The fast growth of biomass after 2003 is strongly related to Turboden that installed on average 15 to 25 units per year and has 43 new units in construction. Despite a high potential, the Waste Heat Recovery market has declined between 2008 and 2013, before experiencing a new growth until 2015. The share of installed capacity per specific application does not change significantly over time compared to Figure 3, with ICE & Gas Turbines representing 68% of the market from 2013 to 2015. During the same period, applications in the cement industry becomes negligible, while the shares of metals (11.3%) and waste to energy (9.3%) increased. In 2016, 255 MW of new ORC capacity has been commissioned, a decrease of 28% compared to 2015. This is largely due to the drop in heat recovery applications with only 15 MW of new capacity in 2016, compared to the all- time record of 122 MWel in 2015 and 53 MW in 2014. Possible reasons could be a strong decrease in electricity and gas prices, and competition against other renewable energies such as solar and wind. More than 460 MW of new installed capacity have already been announced or are in construction. This includes the large Sarulla geothermal project in Indonesia (3 x 110 MW in flash and binary cycles) that should be completed in 2019 and represents an estimation of 150 MW in new binary cycles [11]. LNG 1.3% Petroleum & coal 1.3% Landfill ICE 0.9% Others2% Chemicalindustry0.8%PDF Image | World Overview of the Organic Rankine Cycle Market
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