Analysis of Technological Innovation and Environmental Performance Improvement in Aviation Sector

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Analysis of Technological Innovation and Environmental Performance Improvement in Aviation Sector ( analysis-technological-innovation-and-environmental-performa )

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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2011, 8 3780 We note the fast rate of innovation before 1960 and the slower pace since then. During the oil shocks in the 1970s, aircraft technological innovations were slowing down due to technological limits in conventional jet engines, wing design and airframe materials. The cost of innovation toward more radical forms of aircraft was enormous, so the aviation industry was reluctant to invest in such technologies [13]. It was more economical to pay for higher oil prices in the near term [3]. At the same time, it appears that either government or society did not strongly demand more energy-saving technologies. Reductions in EI do not always directly imply lower environmental impact. For example, the prevalence of contrails is enhanced by greater engine efficiency [14]. NOX emissions also become increasingly difficult to limit as engine temperatures and pressures increase—a common method for improving engine efficiency [15]. These conflicting influences make it difficult to translate between the expected changes in overall system performance and the impact on air quality. Engine, aerodynamic, and structural efficiencies play an important role in determining the energy intensity of an aircraft. Engine efficiency in large commercial aircraft, as measured by the cruise specific fuel consumption of newly-introduced engines, has improved by approximately 40% over the period 1959–2000, which equates to an average improvement of 1.5% annually [3]. Most of this improvement was realized prior to 1970, with the introduction of high bypass turbofan engines. However, as bypass ratios have increased, engine diameters have also become larger, leading to an increase in engine weight and aerodynamic drag [16]. Aerodynamic efficiency in large commercial aircraft has increased by approximately 15% historically, averaging 0.4% per year for the same period. Historical improvements in structural efficiency are less evident. One reason is that over the 35-year period between the introduction of the B707 and the B777, large commercial aircraft in service have been constructed almost exclusively of aluminum and are currently about 90% metallic by weight. Composites are used for a limited number of components. Another reason is that improvements in aircraft structural efficiency have been largely traded for other technological improvements like larger, heavier engines and increased passenger comfort [16,17]. If technological and operational improvements in aircraft systems continue to occur at a pace seen historically, a 30% to 50% reduction in EU would be possible by 2025 [3]. This is equivalent to a 1.2% to 2.2% annual change in EI. Even though this is in line with industry expectations, such large improvements in technology may not be reached within the next 15 years. For example the 747–400 entered service in 1989, while the new A380 arrived almost exactly 20 years later. The EI of the new Airbus A380 is 12% lower with respect to the B747-400 [18], which makes 0.7% improvement per year. The annual reduction is not constant but diminishing because of increasing cost and time to develop better technology. Note that this pace of change is not sufficient to counter the projected annual 4%–6% growth in demand for air transport. Unless measures are taken to significantly alter the dominant historical rates of change in technology and operations, the impacts of aviation emissions on local air quality and climate will continue to grow. 3. Drivers of Aircraft Technology Innovation Historically, three major drivers have existed for aircraft technological innovation. One major driver was fuel cost. Previous studies [6,16] examined the improvement in aircraft fuel efficiency. Since fuel

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