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Table 5-2: Estimated market value (2009) for large industrial refrigeration installations Europe/Russia North America India/China Total Condenser Sales (US$ M) 42 77 45 Estimated Total Market (US$ M) 830 1,500 900 Proportion of R-717 use 90% 95% 90% Smaller industrial systems more often use air-cooled condensers, and in these cases the refrigerant is more likely to be a fluorocarbon, although air-cooled condensers with stainless steel tubes are used in smaller R-717 systems. Table 5-3 shows the estimated value of the refrigeration market for the same regions with the split between R-717, HCFC-22 and HFCs. Market research companies estimate the Industrial Market value to be worth US$ 23.22 billion in 2022 (Markets, 2016). It should be noted however that there may be significant variations within the regions from country to country or state to state due to legislation or tradition. For example the use of R-717 in small industrial systems is quite common in Germany, but not in France, and is virtually unknown in Canada and some states in the USA, such as New Jersey. Typically, if HCFC-22 is still permitted, e.g., in Article 5 countries, it will be used for these smaller systems. If ozone depleting substances have already been prohibited then the likely refrigerants will be R-404A and R-507A for low temperature systems and HFC-134a for high temperature systems. Experience with the accelerated ODS phase-out in Europe showed that HCFC-22 systems continue to be deployed right up to the phase-out deadline. The same pattern of behaviour has been observed more recently in the United States which followed the Montreal Protocol phaseout schedule. Table 5-3: Estimated 2008 market value for small industrial refrigeration installations Europe/Russia North America India/China Estimated Total Market (US$ M) 200 300 500 Proportion of R-717 use 25% 10% 5% Proportion of HCFC-22 use 10% 60% 90% Proportion of HFC use 65% 30% 5% This table shows that the transition in smaller industrial systems when HCFC-22 is removed is often replaced by HFC blends. For Article 5 countries it is possible that a different pattern will emerge. Concern about a “phase-down” of HFCs and associated price increases might result in a switch directly from HCFC-22 to R-717 for larger new systems provided trained staff are available and the inherent fear of R-717 is overcome. In many ways this is simpler than switching to HFCs and then to R-717 at a later date. For example, the traditional lubricants used with HCFC-22 can also be used with R-717, whereas alternatives (typically polyol ester) are required for HFCs and are not compatible with R-717. The use of R-717 as a replacement for HCFC-22 for small capacity systems will only be feasible if technician training is prioritised and system designs incorporate low refrigerant charge. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have a relatively large bank of refrigerants in industrial refrigeration applications. Saudi Arabia has an estimated bank of HCFC-22 of about 100 2018 TOC Refrigeration, A/C and Heat Pumps Assessment ReportPDF Image | Heat Pumps Technical Options
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