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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 4: Present and potential industrial uses of hydrogen based fuels such as ammonia) offer ways of reducing emissions that are proven at scale. However, negligible quantities of hydrogen are currently used for this purpose today.39 Despite having the potential to eliminate emissions from high-temperature heat for industry, hydrogen remains an expensive alternative to fossil fuels in the context of a low-carbon pathway for the energy system, even when CO2 prices reach USD 100/tCO2 (Figure 49). Bioenergy tends to be more cost-competitive in this context, assuming a bioenergy price range of USD 8–12/GJ in 2030. In all regions explored in Figure 49, bioenergy is cheaper than the hydrogen-based fuels and thus shows a smaller differential relative to coal and natural gas prices. Figure 49. 40 30 20 10 Economics and future potential in the context of a USD 100/tCO2 carbon price 40 30 20 H2 LOHC NH3 (H2) NH3 10 Bioenergy (USD 8/GJ) Bioenergy (USD 12/GJ) Notes: LOHC = liquid organic hydrogen carrier; NH3 (H2) = hydrogen transported as ammonia and then converted back to hydrogen; NH3 = ammonia transported and combusted as ammonia. High-temperature heat demand refers to non-chemical/iron and steel sector heat demand > 400°C. The regional price differentials are calculated using the cheapest source of each hydrogen-based fuel available (whether imported or domestically produced) and the domestic prices of coal and gas. More information on the assumptions is available at www.iea.org/hydrogen2019. Source: IEA 2019. All rights reserved. In key regions for high-temperature heat demand in 2030, low-carbon hydrogen-based fuels are likely to be a significantly more expensive alternative to fossil fuels than bioenergy Bioenergy is set to become cost-competitive with natural gas as a source of high-temperature heat in 2030 in India, China and Japan, even at the higher end of the bioenergy price range explored (USD 12/GJ). This is due to relatively high natural gas prices in these regions in the context of a Paris-compatible pathway for the energy system (USD 3.8–10.6/MBtu). A CO2 price of around USD 200/tCO2 would be needed before the cheapest hydrogen-based fuels (at a delivered cost of USD 2.3–2.7/kgH2) become competitive with coal and natural gas. Hydrogen does, however, offer some advantages for decarbonising elements of this diverse segment of energy demand, despite its relatively high costs and the need for it to overcome 39 This excludes the hydrogen portions of fuel gas that are recirculated for combustion (e.g. coke oven gas, by-product gas from steam cracking). The utilisation of these by-product gases is not relevant to the scope of this analysis, because they are not likely to represent growth areas for low-carbon hydrogen production in the future. 00 0 50 100 150 0 50 100 150 - 10 High-temp. heat demand in 2030 (Mtoe/yr) - 10 High-temp. heat demand in 2030 (Mtoe/yr) PAGE | 118 IEA. All rights reserved. Coal price differential in 2030 (USD/GJ) Japan Brazil United States India Gas price differential in 2030 (USD/GJ) Japan Brazil United States India China ChinaPDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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