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The Future of Hydrogen Chapter 5: Opportunities for hydrogen in transport, buildings and power Blending hydrogen into natural gas for heating In major heating markets like Canada, the United States and Western Europe, blending low shares of hydrogen – 3–5% hydrogen by volume – into supplied natural gas would have little impact on end-use equipment such as boilers and gas cookstoves. As described in Chapter 3, 20% blend shares in 14 buildings in Ameland (the Netherlands) found no problems with leakage, flame stability, back firing or ignition, nor were there problems with pipes or heating equipment at 30%. Other projects around the world have tested specific pieces of equipment, with similar conclusions. Rigorous testing to ensure system safety, efficiency and environmental performance in the long run would nonetheless be required as the general tolerance of domestic appliances at higher blends cannot be assumed, especially for older equipment. In parallel, it would make sense to ensure that any infrastructure or equipment upgrades were compatible with a possible switch to higher shares of hydrogen. Blending hydrogen can create dependable demand for hydrogen through its early deployment phase, but managing the cost impacts is a key challenge for policy makers. Taking an illustrative example, if hydrogen were blended into all natural gas use around the world at just 3% by volume, this would boost clean hydrogen demand by close to 12 MtH2/yr. This would be a significant scale- up of hydrogen supply, equivalent to about 17% of current global dedicated hydrogen production. This could potentially have a major impact on the costs of hydrogen supply technologies through expansion of manufacturing and installation, but would add around 3–15% to natural gas supply costs. Many markets are currently close to the tipping point between gas and electricity prices that could trigger a switch to higher-performance heat pump technologies – including hybrid or gas thermal heat pumps – where they are appropriate, especially for new construction (Figure 59). Increases in gas prices resulting from blending mandates or incentives would risk losing gas customers, something to be considered in policy design. Figure 59. 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Spread of energy prices, performance and operational costs for gas and electric heating equipment in IEA countries, 2017 7.5 6 4.5 0.23 3 0.08 1.5 0.25 0.2 0.15 3.10 0.1 0.05 0.08 0.07 Notes: kWh-eq = kilowatt hour equivalent. Prices are residential prices, including taxes, in USD 2017 using purchasing power parities. Source: IEA 2019. All rights reserved. Relative gas and electricity prices are finely poised in many countries between levels that would make heat pumps or gas boilers the most cost-effective for new installations. 000 Natural gas Electricity Gas boiler Electric heat pump Energy prices Energy performance Gas boiler Operational cost 0.92 Electric heat pump PAGE | 147 IEA. All rights reserved. USD per kWh-eq Seasonal efficiency factor USD per kWh-eqPDF Image | The Future of Hydrogen 2019
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