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1 Summary for Policymakers 1. Available evidence suggests that, worldwide, it is likely19 that there is a technical potential20 of at least about 2,000 GtCO2 (545 GtC) of storage capacity in geological formations21. 20.In most scenario studies, the role of CCS in mitigation portfolios increases over the course of the century, and the inclusion of CCS in a mitigation portfolio is found to reduce the costs of stabilizing CO2 concentrations by 30% or more. There could be a much larger potential for geological storage in saline formations, but the upper limit estimates are uncertain due to lack of information and an agreed methodology. The capacity of oil and gas reservoirs is better known. Technical storage capacity in coal beds is much smaller and less well known. One aspect of the cost competitiveness of CCS systems is that CCS technologies are compatible with most current energy infrastructures. Model calculations for the capacity to store CO2 in the oceans indicate that this capacity could be on the order of thousands of GtCO2, depending on the assumed stabilization level in the atmosphere22 and on environmental constraints such as ocean pH change. The extent to which mineral carbonation may be used can currently not be determined, since it depends on the unknown amount of silicate reserves that can be technically exploited and on environmental issues such as the volume of product disposal (Sections 5.3, 6.3.1, 7.2.3, Table 5.2). The global potential contribution of CCS as part of a mitigation portfolio is illustrated by the examples given in Figure SPM.7. The present extent of analyses in this field is limited, and further assessments may be necessary to improve information (Sections 1.5, 8.3.3, 8.3.3.4, Box 8.3). 19.In most scenarios for stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations between 450 and 750 ppmv CO2 and in a least-cost portfolio of mitigation options, the economic potential23 of CCS would amount to 220– 2,200 GtCO2 (60–600 GtC) cumulatively, which would mean that CCS contributes 15–55% to the cumulative mitigation effort worldwide until 2100, averaged over a range of baseline scenarios. It is likely20 that the technical potential21 for geological storage is sufficient to cover the high end of the economic potential range, but for specific regions, this may not be true. For existing CO2 pipelines, mostly in areas of low population density, accident numbers reported per kilometre pipeline are very low and are comparable to those for hydrocarbon pipelines. A sudden and large release of CO2 would pose immediate dangers to human life and health, if there were exposure to concentrations of CO2 greater than 7–10% by volume in air. Pipeline transport of CO2 through populated areas requires attention to route selection, overpressure protection, leak detection and other design factors. No major obstacles to pipeline design for CCS are foreseen (Sections 4.4.2, AI.2.3.1). Uncertainties in these economic potential estimates are significant. For CCS to achieve such an economic potential, several hundreds to thousands of CO2 capture systems would need to be installed over the coming century, each capturing some 1–5 MtCO2 per year. The actual implementation of CCS, as for other mitigation options, is likely to be lower than the economic potential due to factors such as environmental impacts, risks of leakage and the lack of a clear legal framework or public acceptance (Sections 1.4.4, 5.3.7, 8.3.1, 8.3.3, 8.3.3.4). 22.With appropriate site selection based on available subsurface information, a monitoring programme to detect problems, a regulatory system and the appropriate use of remediation methods to stop or control CO2 releases if they arise, the local health, safety and environment risks of geological storage would be comparable to the risks of current activities such as natural gas storage, EOR and deep underground disposal of acid gas. 19 “Likely” is a probability between 66 and 90%. 20 “Technical potential” as defined in the TAR is the amount by which it is possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by implementing a technology or practice that already has been demonstrated 21 This statement is based on the expert judgment of the authors of the available literature. It reflects the uncertainty about the storage capacity estimates (Section 5.3.7) 22 This approach takes into account that the CO2 injected in the ocean will after some time reach equilibrium with the atmosphere. 23 Economic potential is the amount of greenhouse gas emissions reductions from a specific option that could be achieved cost-effectively, given prevailing . circumstances (i.e. a market value of CO2 reductions and costs of other options). 24 In discussing the risks, we assume that risk is the product of the probability that an event will occur and the consequences of the event if it does occur. What are the local health, safety and environment risks of CCS? 21. The local risks24 associated with CO2 pipeline transport could be similar to or lower than those posed by hydrocarbon pipelines already in operation. Natural CO2 reservoirs contribute to the understanding of the behaviour of CO2 underground. Features of storage sites with a low probability of leakage include highly impermeable caprocks, geological stability, absence of leakage pathsPDF Image | CARBON DIOXIDE CAPTURE AND STORAGE
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