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Replacing gasoline-fueled LDVs with vehicles that derive a significant fraction of their energy from electricity is one option for reducing our dependence on foreign oil and the carbon footprint of transportation at the same time. Compared to burning gasoline in an engine at relatively low operational efficiency, generating electricity with a power plant and putting that energy into an on-board battery to propel a vehicle it is significantly more fuel-efficient. It is estimated that with today’s mix of power plants and vehicles, this would provide an approximate 30% improvement in energy consumption per VMT and a 27% reduction in CO2 emissions, while reducing imports of foreign oil by 52% (Kintner- Meyer et al. 2007). PHEVS are often cited as a solution that bridges the need for better transportation efficiency and consumers desire for travel range. With the advent of better battery technology, PHEVs may be supplanted by EVs, but the reduced fuel and emissions are the same per VMT when powered with electricity. Analysis has shown that with today’s load shape and generation capacity, it should be possible to supply over 70% of the energy1 for the U.S. LDV fleet (cars, vans, SUVs, and light trucks) without building additional generation or transmission—if their charging times are carefully managed to strictly avoid charging during peak load hours. If this can be accomplished, there is downward pressure on electricity prices because the cost of the existing grid infrastructure is spread over more unit sales of energy (Scott et al. 2007). That will help keep electricity an affordable and viable alternative to gasoline. The ability to manage the charging time period and shift the vehicle load off peak is the enabling characteristic of smart charging technologies that would be supplied by a smart grid. The analysis documented in Attachment 1, Mechanism F, focuses on determining the impact of a smart grid on achieving savings from PHEVs or EVs. First, it must be recognized that the primary investment from which any savings are derived is from the vehicle itself, not a smart grid. While a smart grid is designed to help keep electricity prices down, and that will help electric-powered vehicles penetrate, the dominant influence on their penetration is likely to be cost and performance in the eyes of the consumer. That is primarily driven by battery technology. The impacts of a smart grid analyzed here focus on the question of how many additional PHEVs/EVs can be supported by using smart charging. Driving data from a large sample of vehicles was used to estimate when vehicles arrive at home in the evening, and it was assumed that charging of their batteries would immediately commence at 120 volts. On the average day in the peak load season, many of these vehicles begin charging while the grid is still in a peak load condition. The (base case) analysis first determined how many vehicles could be accommodated before they caused the total load to exceed the available excess generating capacity on that day was exceeded (less reserve margins).2 This was then compared to the number of vehicles that could be supported in each of 13 regions comprising the entire United States with smart charging, and the difference attributed to a smart grid. The result is that smart charging raises the share of electric VMT by 9 percentage points−from 64% to 73% of the LDV fleet. This allows the grid to support 18 million more PHEVs and EVs beyond the 140 million supportable with unmanaged charging. 1 Or, equivalently, 70% of the VMT. 2 This analysis implicitly assumes that since both are driven by population growth, to a first order the number of vehicles grows at the same rate as the electric generating capacity. 3.25PDF Image | The Smart Grid: An Estimation of the Energy and CO2 Benefits
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