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The reductions in electricity and CO2 emissions calculated in Attachment 2 are based on this estimate. The estimated potential direct impacts are a net (petroleum minus electricity) reduction of 3% (with a range from 2% to 5%) in the energy consumption for LDV transportation at some point in the future, if EV/PHEV penetrations reach the 73% level discussed above. To place this in perspective with the potential impacts of the other mechanisms in this report, we translate this into equivalent reductions in U.S. electric sector energy and associated emissions of 3%, as shown in Table 3.9. These percentage impacts are nearly the same because the energy for LDVs and electric power consumption are nearly the same. No indirect reductions in electricity or capacity are expected. Table 3.9. Estimated Direct Utility Energy and Carbon Reductions from Supporting Additional Electric Vehicles and Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles Est. % 3 Low High % % 2 5 9 Reduced Energy Consumption (2030) Baseline Electricity Consumption Electric Sector Annual Reductions (2030) End-Use Sector(s) Electricity Equivalent of Light Vehicle Transportation (cars, vans, SUVs, light trucks) 9 (10 kWh/year) 5135 (10 139 3 Energy Carbon Emissions (MMT/ yearr) 82 % of United States 3 % of kWh/ United year) States Of course, electric-powered vehicles are not the only potential solution to the energy and carbon footprint of transportation. If an alternative solution predominates, the reductions may not be fully attributable to a smart grid. Bio-fuels are another important option, particularly coupled with cellulosic- conversion technology and clean diesel engines. Hydrogen is also an option, but if it is produced with renewable electricity, or coal-fired power plants with carbon-sequestration, conversion losses of 50% hinder its potential. Nuclear power plants could be used to produce hydrogen if costs were low enough to compensate for the conversion losses. They could also be used to produce electricity, but then managing charging with a smart grid would become even more important because nuclear power plants are not suited to ramp up and down to follow load. There is currently much discussion about whether 120-volt charging will be the norm. In large vehicles like SUVs, charging at that voltage for a 30-mile range can take 12 hours or more. Shorter charging times may be desired by consumers, in which case 240-volt charging may become the standard. 240-volt outlets in garages of new homes are already required in California for this reason. To a first order, charging at 240 volts doubles the peak load impact of unmanaged charging, and therefore cuts the number of vehicles that can be supported with unmanaged charging in half. This reduces the fraction of electric VMTs that can be supported by the grid before smart charging is required to 32%, raising the smart grid’s impact from 9% to 41%, more than quadrupling the estimated reductions to 13%. This highlights an issue that unmanaged PHEV charging may set new system peaks in some regions, rather than be “perfect valley-filling” solution under a managed charging paradigm. This analysis ignores the possible additional benefits of managing the charging of EVs and PHEVs, and potentially discharging them as well, to provide ancillary services. This could provide an indirect benefit by reducing the costs for ancillary services required to integrate high levels of renewable wind and solar generation. These benefits could be substantial if there are enough vehicles to drive down the 3.26PDF Image | The Smart Grid: An Estimation of the Energy and CO2 Benefits
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