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These estimates include homes whose space and water heat are provided by all sources, including natural gas, fuel oil, kerosene, propane, and wood. The total electricity consumption for the homes that do not use electricity for space and water heating, the basis for the analysis here, is the sum of the consumption for the Air Conditioning and Other end uses: about 8,600 kWh/year. Reverse power flow will begin if every home has a solar PV array that is just big enough, on average, to meet the load. On a very clear day (solar clearness index, KT = 0.75), the incident solar radiation on a place tilted toward the sun at noon1 is 75% of the extraterrestrial solar radiation, or a little over 1 kW/m2 (1015 W/m2). If the solar conversion efficiency is 17%, then a net of 6 m2 of solar cells are needed to produce 1 kW of power. The daily solar energy varies by location due to latitude and cloud cover. The annual average annual average on a south-facing surface with a tilt equal to the latitude for various locations in the United States is indicated by the color coding on the map in Figure 3.9. To this, we have added a second scaling key to the color coding that reflect the annual average solar renewable portfolio standard (RPS) for this neighborhood at which the output of the solar array on such a day exactly matches the 1 kW load of the home. The scaling key is produced corresponding to the original color coding key that has increments of incident daily solar energy shown in the first line of Table H.3, below. This is multiplied by 365 days per year to get the annual incident solar energy in the second line of the table. This is then multiplied by the net active area of solar PV cells in the array, 6 m2. Note that the results here are independent of the assumed conversion efficiency; a lower efficiency simply requires a higher net area that intercepts a correspondingly higher total of incident radiation to produce 1 kW, for example. As the final step, the annual output of the solar PV array is divided by the total consumption of the home for the Air Conditioning and Other end uses from Table H.3 to estimate the fraction of the home’s annual energy supplied by the solar PV array. Table H.3. Fraction of Home’s Annual Energy Supplied by a 1-kW Solar PV Array From Figure 3.9, the annual fraction of energy generated from such a 1-kW solar array is seen to range from a low of about 17% to a high of about 28% over most of the United States (excluding Alaska and parts of the Pacific Northwest). The median for the continental United States appears to be around 21%. Thus, the onset of reverse power flow appears to be a serious barrier to penetrations of solar PV systems in residential neighborhoods to achieve local RPS levels above about 20%. A smart grid could help circumvent this barrier by deploying and controlling additional voltage regulators, controlling batteries, and providing adaptive short-circuit protection schemes that adapt to reverse power flow on the 1 If the spring or fall day is at the solar equinox (March 20 or September 22), the tilt of the array is exactly equal to the latitude. Photovoltaic solar resource (kWh/m2-day) 6.8 6 5 4 3 2.2 Photovoltaic solar resource (kWh/m2-yr) 2,482 2,190 1,825 1,460 1,095 803 PV output, 1-kW array (kWh/yr) 2,519 2,222 1,852 1,482 1,111 815 Fraction of annual energy from PV 29% 26% 22% 17% 13% 9% H.5PDF Image | The Smart Grid: An Estimation of the Energy and CO2 Benefits
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